Richard WarnickTo Stand or Fall in Baghdad
The New York Times has a sobering article about the last-ditch efforts by the 4th Infantry Division to secure Baghdad. Things are not going well, and there is no Plan B. Here are some bullet points taken from the article:
- Baghdad is the center of gravity for the larger American mission in Iraq. If the capital is overwhelmed by sectarian strife, the cause of fostering a more stable Iraq will be lost.
- In invading Iraq, American forces started from outside the country and fought their way in. The current strategy is essentially to work from the inside out.
- Baghdad security may not be a sufficient condition for a more stable Iraq, but it is a necessary condition for any alternative plan that does not simply abandon the Iraqis to their fate.
- So far, the plan has been short on resources as well as results. The Iraqi Defense Ministry has supplied only two of the six Iraqi Army battalions requested.
- Several Iraqi battalions have deserted rather than follow orders to go to Baghdad.
- Some of the Iraqi police forces the Americans must work with have been infiltrated by militias. One Iraqi National Police unit has already been withdrawn from the streets.
- Delays in Iraqi government programs to improve electrical, sewage, water and health facilities have hampered the effort. In the absence of large-scale Iraqi programs, the Americans have sponsored some smaller efforts to improve sanitation and repair services.
- While the sectarian violence would be far worse if not for the American efforts, the number of murders in the Baghdad area has not decreased as hoped.
- There is no fall-back plan that the generals are holding in their hip pocket. This is it.
UPDATE: Newsweek has more. “Two years ago, when there were 150,000 U.S. troops in Iraq and effectively zero Iraqi forces, the expectation was that once the Iraqis were trained up, security would improve. Now there are 140,000 Americans and 130,000 Iraqi troops, and parts of the country—Baghdad among them—are worse off than ever. No one knows what to do about it.”
UPDATE: In a White House press briefing, President Bush noted: “As the enemy shifts tactics, we are shifting our tactics as well.” Unfortunately, shifting tactics to adapt to the enemy means the enemy has the initiative, and if the key to your strategy is reacting to the enemy’s tactics, you have no strategy.
October 24th, 2006 at 1:00 pm
The point is moot Chris, all battles being first won in the mind(SunTzu). Since those that fomented this catastrophe have no mind, it is unsurprising that we find ourselves exactly where the enemy has placed us.
There are signs that bushfraud realizes this 2 weeks before his partys’ doom, and now even he, the simpleton, is saying things like, “we need to adapt, if what we are doing is not working” (paraphrase). “stay the course 25%”.
25% of staying the course in my car generally yields it ending up in a ditch, or worse.
Jesus, if I was the enemy, it would be tap dancing time…and it seems to be, but as history as my guide, you can expect the Parthians to be shooting until your ass flies away, and I would be sittin’ on my helmet if I was an evacuating troop.
The Parthians mean to leave a lasting memory mark, so there should be no shock if dead someones lose their head. I mean, to the Parthians dead is dead, and they, in their religion don’t worship the dead body, though they would use it to dis-ease their enemies.
They have defeated us in our minds, the pre-requisite for victory, as SunTzu would say.
Our retreat could be bloody, worse than Vietnam, as tactically we are not leaving a place that we control. All our troops in the hinterlands of iraq will have to fight their way out or be airlifted. To a military mind our place is precarious, our enemy tepid, and ready to teach.
October 24th, 2006 at 2:43 pm
“They have defeated us, in our mind”. This may apply to the bush crowd and those who fell sway to the propaganda, but once again I feel left out of the equasion. I never wanted this murderous policy. I saw it coming as soon as the supreme court and associates ripped the election of 2000 and have resisted it on moral grounds from the beginning, as have SO many others. So while some of us have been defeated, others of us have not! I think it will be very important to follow the advice of Paul Krugman in Tuesdays Trib, and not all of a sudden become Mr. Niceguys / Gals. We must get to the bottom of this corruption so that we can get past it. Use the new law to render the responsible parties, without council, without telling them just what they are charged with, and maybe just maybe, keep em locked up till things get straightened out. The f*ck-ups presently holding the reigns should get out of the way, or be pushed aside and let the responsible adults fix things…again.
October 25th, 2006 at 7:56 pm
We are the spine of a fallen mighty creature, as we are unbroken, any deficits are not mortal and we can heal the body.
Protecting ourselves, all of us, our rights, freedoms, liberties, is the danger, as it is as any wounded living thing heals. bushfraud has weakened us, in my mind as a wounded creature, anything that gets in the way of survival is met with wolverine attitude. The period of time called now, is very precarious. On guard.
Gladly our enemies know this. The trifling with the true American Spirit has left more than a few at a loss. They know it and would rather have us whole as war with us, as even as the last described our leaders incompetence, no one can doubt its deadliness.
Our enemy is internal,
it bugger us infernal
we decide , to “them” deride
and sweep away, much like the tide
and so castles built on lies
are washed away, like coke on fries
they have about a similar feel
momentary, but hardly real.
December 21st, 2006 at 2:24 pm
[...] President Bush may be determined to pass along his Iraq problem to the next president. Iraqis are equally determined to rid themselves of foreign occupation. As I suggested in a previous post, the decisive battle will be fought in Baghdad. Baghdad is the center of gravity for the larger American mission. If the capital is overwhelmed by sectarian strife, there will be no way to stabilize the entire country. [...]