Iran Attack Looks Less Likely
Here on October 4 I predicted that the USA would be in position to attack Iran before this year’s election, with two carrier strike groups and a Marine expeditionary strike group. The Bush administration has been reported to be seriously contemplating war with Iran to bring about regime change, for example in a New Yorker article by Seymour Hersh last April.
My prediction was wrong. I’ve been following the progress of the strike groups according to the U.S. Navy. The USS Eisenhower is behind the announced schedule, having transited the Mediterranean with port calls at Naples and Limassol, Cyprus. It is now in the Red Sea instead of being off the coast of Iran by October 21 as originally planned. Only part of the USS Boxer Expeditionary Strike Group has arrived at the Persian Gulf; the USS Boxer is making a port call at Mumbai, India and another ship is stopping by the Maldives.
The USS Enterprise Strike Group is also in the Red Sea, and it seems reasonable to assume they are headed for the Mediterranean and back home.
Oil markets are not anticipating an attack on Iran. Crude prices are below $60 a barrel. Perhaps most telling, the Bush administration has ceased its rhetoric about the presumed Iranian nuclear weapons program. There has been no effort to create a pretext for war. It would be nice to think that Bush/Cheney have realized how wrong and counter-productive for our foreign policy it would be to make war on Iran.
UPDATE: The U.S. Navy coordinated a two-day multinational naval exercise in the Gulf, however the only American ship participating was a Coast Guard cutter. The exercise was part of an ongoing operation to interdict ships that transport missiles and nuclear weapons.
UPDATE: The USS Enterprise is listed as underway in the Mediterranean Sea as of November 1.
October 30th, 2006 at 7:53 pm
Thank you Richard for watching this. You provide important news we cannot easily find.
October 30th, 2006 at 9:17 pm
I wrote a skeptical comment on your last post on this topic and I’m writing a comment here to apologize. Cliff is right…we need to have people watching this administration’s every move and bloggers can fill that role to some degree.
The fact that you have put up a follow up post to your last one shows you are bigger than most of your critics (well me anyway) and motivated by real concern not gotcha politics. Very cool of you.
October 30th, 2006 at 9:48 pm
I agree with the above comments, Mr. Warnick.
So much flies under the radar - especially when other issues or scandals give them cover. Much like the Iran Freedom Support Act, passed by Congress and signed into action by Bush during the Foley scandal. The act soundd alot like the 1998 Iraq Liberation Act in name and substance. The short-term October suprise kind of attack is unlikely, but war in the long-term is definitely not out of the question.
Here’s a good piece by Jon Sawyer of the LA Times.
http://fairuse.100webcustomers.com/fairenough/latimes522.html
October 31st, 2006 at 12:07 am
I wrote about the Iraq war possibility on blog as well, and boy am I glad I was wrong about it.
October 31st, 2006 at 8:52 am
Please withold all hopes of what is going to happen to Iran, until after the election.