One Utah

With all the stock phrases generated by politicians trying to sound like they understand what’s happening halfway around the world in Iraq, do we need another one? Yes, if it describes a viable strategy. Today the Center for American Progress released a well-thought-out report: Strategic Reset: Reclaiming Control of U.S. Security in the Middle East by Brian Katulis, Lawrence J. Korb, and Peter Juul.

Finally, it seems as if someone has thought out the consequences of arming Iraqi forces in the absence of a strong, legitimate central government. Short version: not a good idea.

With the Iraq war well into its fifth year, the Bush administration still lacks a realistic plan for the Middle East and Iraq. The United States must reclaim control of its core national security interests by taking active steps to stabilize the entire Middle East and abandon the delusions at the heart of President Bush’s policies…

The current Iraq strategy is exactly what Al Qaeda wants—the United States distracted and pinned down by Iraq’s internal conflicts and trapped in a quagmire that has become the perfect rallying cry and recruitment tool for Al Qaeda…

Instead, the United States must reset its strategy by looking beyond the deteriorating situation in Iraq in order to counter the threat from global terrorist groups and ensure stability in the entire Middle East and Gulf region. To do this, we need to develop a new overall Middle East strategy, not just a series of tactics focused heavily on Iraq…

The fundamental premise of Bush’s surge strategy—that Iraq’s leaders will make key decisions to advance their country’s political transition and national reconciliation—is at best misguided and clearly unworkable. Neither U.S. troops in and around Baghdad nor diplomats in the Green Zone can force Iraqi leaders to hold their country together…

Spending billions to arm Iraq’s security forces without political consensus among Iraq’s leaders carries significant risks—the largest of which is arming faction-ridden national Iraqi units before a unified national government exists that these armed forces will loyally support. Training and equipping Iraqi security forces risks making Iraq’s civil war even bloodier and more vicious than it already is today. It also increases the dangers that these weapons will one day be turned against the United States and its allies in the region.

The United States cannot stabilize Iraq without serious action by Iraq’s leaders. The “no end in sight” strategy fosters a culture of dependency among Iraqis by propping up certain members of Iraq’s national government without fundamentally changing Iraq’s political dynamics. It does so at the cost of grinding down the strength of U.S. ground forces, as the readiness of these forces continues to decline. Our ground forces are so overstretched that many of our soldiers and Marines are being sent to Iraq without proper training and equipment, some multiple times; our National Guard has become an operational rather than strategic reserve.

The consequences of President Bush’s stubbornness are dire. Many events that some fear would result if U.S. troops left Iraq are unfolding now just as the U.S. troop presence is getting larger—vicious ethnic and sectarian conflict, growing tensions on Iraq’s borders, increasing provocative actions by Iran, and the largest refugee crisis in the Middle East since 1948…

The authors offer a lot of conclusions and recommendations, including the full redeployment of US forces from Iraq by September 2008, except for a contingent of 8,000 to 10,000 troops that would be based in Kurdistan as a buffer to prevent an outbreak of hostilities on the border with Turkey.

UPDATE: Senate foreign policy heavyweight Richard Lugar (R-IN) calls on Bush to go to Plan B– not in September, but now. “Persisting indefinitely with the surge strategy will delay policy adjustments that have a better chance of protecting our vital interests over the long term,” Senator Lugar says.

This entry was posted Monday, June 25th, 2007 at 3:31 pm and is filed under Disaster, Iraq, Military, National Politics, This Blog, War. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.