One Utah

Yeah I admit it, I was late to the game in watching the The West Wing - I basically avoided dramas on TV for years then found myself one night absorbed by an episode - the writing was so clear, so sharp, the dialog was beyond perfect (the president’s daughter’s kidnapping was a sublime shark jump - the perfect moment at which a once great show became a mockery of itself; there were a few later episodes and story lines that worked but for the most the edge was gone). At its best, West Wing showed politics as hard work, the flash back episodes showing the campaign were amazing. And sadly,not terribly true to life. Real life campaigns are far more interesting and far more boring. The dialog isn’t nearly as witty and the sets are tragically less picturesque. For all that, real life campaigning is more addictive than sex, chocolate and shopping put together.

Tonight, I had the opportunity to walk another precinct in our city. The night was warm, but not insanely hot like last week. At between 2/3 and 3/4 of the houses no one answered the door. At those houses at which someone was home, however, I found a wonderful sampling of Salt Lakers. And Salt Lakers, at least the one’s I’m talking with, are not like the average American voter.

A few weeks ago, the Center for American Progress released a report in which they pointed out that something 40% of Americans cannot correctly identify which political party is conservative and which liberal.

Mind blowing isn’t it? 40% of Americans don’t know the Republicans are conseravtive and we wonder why our elections are such a cluster. The folks I talked to this even, however, without exception proved to be well informed. They knew which issues mattered to them in city politics, they knew the candidates names and they knew what they wanted from a city mayor. Going door to door feels scary (I’m pretty far to the I end of the Myers-Briggs scale). Knocking on doors, ringing doorbells and talking about a candidate scares the bejesus out of me. But I keep doing it.

I keep at it because Salt Lake’s citizens are informed, engaged, concernd with the political, cultural, economic and social life of the city. They may not go to rallies or marches, but they can tell you what matters - they want taxes at an adequate level to fund necessary services but also at a fair level. They want good schools. They want safe communities. They want a vital downtown. They want to live in a city with vibrant communities. They don’t want to live in Sandy with its planned suburban banality and sameness. They don’t want to live in the suburban sprawl of Daybreak. They want to live in a city that has vital parts, that has diversity and that offers a real experience of living in community.

Come September 12, I don’t know which candidates with have won the primary. I suspect there’s a good chance we’ll see one Democrat and one Republican. The race may be officially non-partisan but don’t kid yourself - there are real differences between R’s and D’s and very real reasons to vote for any Democrat over any Republican. And the voters of this city are partisan voters. Every single precinct I’ve walked, more than one person has said to me, “I won’t vote for a Republican for city mayor.”

Which brings me at long last to Keith Christensen’s recent announcement that he’s going officially independentsee Mullentown for more details ). There really aren’t any current polls for the Mayor’s race. In the last one, Christensen was running 5th place. Now, I know he’s raised some serious jack for the campaign, but Christensen, despite being Rocky’s designated replacement had a serious problem - namely that he was a Republican.

Christensen has given sizable donations to George W. Bush and other Republican causes and candidates. Any way you slice it, this is a political risk for Christensen, who risks being seen as a person who waffles on core value questions. He changed his position several months ago on the stand he originally took as a city councilman, when he voted against a city non-discrimination ordinance. Now he’s leaving the party he’s identified with for his whole political lifetime.

Jennifer who sometimes posts here has a great post over at Wasatch Watcher about her interview with Christensen. She concluded:

My political ideology tends to be very liberal, and I’m still uncertain who I will vote for in November. I do feel certain, though, that I would feel comfortable having Keith Christensen as mayor of Salt Lake City even if I didn’t vote for him.

This of course leaves Dave Buhler as they only extant Republican in the race. Of course from the old poll, Buhler was in second. There aren’t too many more days left before the official deadline to file as a candidate in the mayor’s race. The leading R’s were Buhler and Christensen and now it’s just Buhler. Hughes seems to be running as an independent from day one. Becker and Wilson are the leading Dems. Now of course, Wilson has a political pedigree in Utah and that’s not inconsiderable. Rocky recently slammed her for being a working mom which could only help her in many quarters. Becker is a strong campaigner, a popular leader, and has a proven track record. Becker and Wilson are battling over the same set of voters. Both of them are strong candidates and both would make a great Mayor (I want to be clear here - I support Becker for many reasons - I think he’s smart, insightful and can lead Salt Lake well; I’m not opposed to Wilson and would gladly have her as our mayor).

Handicapping the race, based people I’ve talked to, here’s my take (subject as always to change since I don’t really know what I’m talking about):
In the September primary - Buhler narrowly comes in first - he has strong and loyal support; Becker and Wilson divide the progressive and D votes in the city with Becker squeaking by Wilson to come in second (I’m betting some latent sexism hurts Wilson). Christensen and Hughes come in after that; it’s a toss up which candidate gets more votes - Hughes could squeeze past Christensen but I’m not really clear where Hughes support could come from - I’m hearing rumors he’s a strong speaker and good campaigner. Christensen (FWIW) strikes me as an establishment candidate in a town that doesn’t trust the establishment; Christensen has strong support in the business community and that’s where his money is coming from; but that support could hurt him. After the primary, the people who support Wilson will swing to Becker giving him a comfortable lead that carries him through November and into the Mayor’s office.

Okay, all of which does not address the Rocky Factor. If Rocky tries to run as a write in, it would create a chaotic campaign, one that would make it hard for Becker (or Wilson) to fight a clean campaign. How do you campaign against a popular incumbent who is doing the wrong thing? How do you argue for a change in tone and style but not a change in policy? “I’d do the same things he’s going to do but I won’t piss people off” is a crappy campaign slogan. If Rocky throws his hat in as a write in, it would be a quixotic and damaging move; think Nader in Florida in 2000.

For all that, however, Salt Lake voters are smart and generally well informed. They would probably see through Rocky running again - or dismiss it as ego or pique - and largely ignore it as a sideshow. But it would certainly create interesting electoral dynamics. And that is the very real world of politics from the view in my dining room this evening.

This entry was posted Thursday, July 12th, 2007 at 10:03 pm and is filed under Ralph Becker, Rocky Anderson, SLC Politics, Salt Lake City. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.