One Utah

The Center for American Progress has a neat time line that reminds us of how many times we have heard variations of this line. The supporters of the indefinite occupation of Iraq at all costs never tire of saying the “next few months” in Iraq will be the “decisive, critical period” of the war. They have been saying it for more than four years.

The refrain of “six more months” (aka one Friedman Unit) seems to be the most popular. I suppose predicting success within six months sounds optimistic, while it’s also long enough that by the time you’re proved wrong most people won’t remember what you said.

By now, it ought to be clear to everyone that the decisive moment came early in 2003, when it became clear to everyone that the United States did not have a plan or enough forces to effectively occupy Iraq. That led to a total breakdown of law and order, the rise of the militias, terrorism and the insurgency– within six months. This has been well documented in the book Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq by Thomas Ricks and the Sundance award-winning documentary “No End in Sight” by Charles Ferguson.

Here’s a sampling of the many quotes on the time line:

“It could last, you know, six days, six weeks. I doubt six months.” –Then-Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, February 7, 2003

“I believe that this conflict is still going to be relatively short.” –Sen. John McCain, March 30, 2003

“I would argue that the next three to six months will be critical.” –Sen. John McCain, September 10, 2003

“The next six months in Iraq… are the most important six months in U.S. foreign policy in a long, long time.” –Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist and inventor of the Friedman Unit, November 20, 2003

“It might be over in a week, it might be over in a month, it might be over in six months, but what’s the rush? Can we let this play out, please?” –Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist, June 3, 2004

“The next few months will be critical.” — Sen. Richard Lugar, July 22, 2004

“This is crunch time. Iraq will be won or lost in the next few months.” –Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist, November 28, 2004

“I think the next nine months are critical.” –Zalmay Khalilzad, then-U.S. Ambassador to Iraq, June 29, 2005

“I think the next 18 months are critical.” –retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, July 18, 2005

“I think we’re in the end game now…. I think we’re in a six-month window here where it’s going to become very clear…” –Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist, September 25, 2005

“The next 75 days are going to be critical for what happens.” –Gen. George Casey, senior coalition commander in Iraq, September 29, 2005

“We are entering a make-or-break six-month period.” –Sen, John Kerry, October 26, 2005

“We’ve got to stay firm for the next six months. It is a critical period…” –Sen. John Warner, November 27, 2005

“I think we have a six-month window here to get it right.” –Sen. Joe Biden, November 27, 2005

“We will probably see significant progress in the next six months to a year…”–Sen. John McCain, December 4, 2005

“I think that we’re going to know after six to nine months whether this project has any chance of succeeding…” –Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist, January 23, 2006

“The United States must… approach 2006 as a make-or-break year in Iraq.” –Kenneth Pollack of the Brookings Institute, February 15, 2006

“I think we’re in the end game in the sense it’s going to be decided in the next weeks or months whether there’s an Iraq there worth investing in.” –Tom Friedman, New York Times columnist, April 23, 2006

“I know it’s the cliche of the war. But we’ll know in the next six months –and this time, it’ll be the last next six months we get.” –Army counterinsurgency specialist, as quoted by Joe Klein in his Time Magazine column, June 1, 2006

“I think between now and Christmas is the crucial time.”–Gen. Barry McCaffrey, June 11, 2006

“The next three months are critical. Before the end of this year, this government needs to show progress in securing Baghdad, pursuing national reconciliation and delivering basic services.” –Iraq Study Group Co-Chair Lee Hamilton, September 20, 2006

“The most important thing is that you continue in your jihad in Iraq– Indeed, prolonging the war is in our interest, with God’s permission.” –Al Qaeda letter intercepted by Counterterrorism Center at West Point, October 4, 2006

“This is a decisive period for everyone and everyone knows it. The next six months will determine the future of Iraq.” –Gen. George Casey, senior coalition commander in Iraq, October 5, 2006

“If you talk to most military experts, we’re in a critical and crucial time. We’re either going to lose this thing or win this thing within the next several months.” –Sen. John McCain, November 12, 2006

“It’s my guess is next four to six months are crucial.” –retired Gen. Barry McCaffrey, November 26, 2006

“…We’ve got to turn the corner on this thing, and we’ve got to do it, I would say, in the next six months.” –Sen. John Thune, December 17, 2006

“Well, I think this will unfold. I think in the next few months you’re going to know whether or not this is working.” –Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, January 8, 2007

“I don’t think this war can be sustained for more than six months if in fact we don’t see some progress.” — Sen. Pat Roberts, January 31, 2007

“The U.S. has six months to win the war in Iraq — or face a Vietnam-style collapse in political and public support that could force the military into a hasty retreat.” –Top advisors to Gen. David Petraeus in Baghdad, as reported in The Guardian, February 27, 2007

It’s basically saying nothing more dramatic than give it six more months or so, maybe nine more months.” –Brookings Institute analyst Michael O’Hanlon, August 5, 2007

UPDATE: MediaMatters documents Bill O’Reilly as a member in good standing of the Six More Months Club.

This entry was posted Thursday, August 9th, 2007 at 10:16 am and is filed under Disaster, Iraq, War. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.