Richard WarnickNIE Key Judgments on Iraq Stability
The New York Times broke the story this morning about another National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq.
Talking Points Memo has more, including the unclassified “key judgments.” Here’s a sample:
[T]he level of overall violence, including attacks on and casualties among civilians, remains high; Iraq’s sectarian groups remain unreconciled; AQI retains the ability to conduct high-profile attacks; and to date, Iraqi political leaders remain unable to govern effectively…
Note that AQI or Al Qaeda in Iraq is the Bush administration’s blanket term for the entire Sunni insurgency.
In other news, we now know that sectarian militias control much of the Iraqi power grid. That’s one reason Baghdad is down to 1-2 hours of electricity per day.
UPDATE: The number of Iraqis who have fled their homes to become internally displaced since the American troop increase began in February has more than doubled, according to data from two humanitarian groups.
August 23rd, 2007 at 1:56 pm
Remember back in 2003 and o4 when these “evil doers” were called “Dead-Enders”? That was the blanket term Bush used then. Now it’s AQI or Al Qaeda in Iraq. What will it be next year, “Democrats”?
August 23rd, 2007 at 2:07 pm
Some of the most astute analysis of the War in Iraq from someone with a real talent for divination!
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=9a8_1186873756
August 23rd, 2007 at 7:09 pm
Want divination? Smoke Salvia. Then hold on.
August 23rd, 2007 at 9:20 pm
It’s clear that AQI is different from the Iraqi Sunnis or Shiites. I can’t imagine how you could impute a misunderstanding of this to President Bush, no matter how badly you disagree with his prosecution of the war.
AQI probably could still conduct high-profile attacks, but not as wantonly as they have done before, as the Iraqi people are starting to reach a critical mass in their realization that al Qaeda is a worthless piece of unIslamic rat poop.
Al Qaeda is marginalizing itself.
Sectarian militias control the power grid because they want enough power for their areas of the country. And more importantly because no one else has tried hard enough to control it from sabotage. It’s got to be controlled by somebody before it can be repaired and improved.
August 24th, 2007 at 7:41 am
Frank, the day before yesterday President Bush claimed, “Our troops have killed or captured an average of more than 1,500 al Qaeda terrorists and other extremists every month since January of this year.” Since the total AQI strength has been estimated at 5,000, they must have captured them all twice. Or perhaps “other extremists” is a larger category than Bush wants to admit.
August 24th, 2007 at 7:56 pm
You’re correct that he did say “and other extremists”. Incidentally, I’ve seen several different estimations of how many AQI members there are. Where does the number 5,000 come from?
August 24th, 2007 at 10:01 pm
I guess he is just late getting around to us all.
Fuckin A, what will take to rid us of this PLAGUE!
August 25th, 2007 at 10:14 am
Frank, GlobalSecurity.org lists AQI “core membership” at 1,000. My much more generous estimate of 5,000 comes from the New York Times via Talking Points Memo. The NYT said AQI has “a few thousand to 5,000 fighters,” mostly Iraqis.
So, what’s your estimate of the number of fighters in AQI? More to the point, can we at last end the occupation of Iraq if we can kill or capture these AQI guys? Will the fiasco be over then?
August 25th, 2007 at 5:43 pm
Al Queda doesn’t exist as described, it is better known to those with a skeptical eye, as Al CIA Duh.
According to bush, we have killed them all, ten times over. They are the undead enders.
August 30th, 2007 at 9:26 am
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August 30th, 2007 at 9:26 am
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