Richard WarnickDid We Say World War III? Never Mind!
President Bush can stop threatening everybody with World War III, at least in regard to Iran. The declassified key judgments (PDF) of the latest National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) titled Iran: Nuclear Intentions and Capabilities concludes that “in fall 2003, Tehran halted its nuclear weapons program… Tehran’s decision to halt its nuclear weapons program suggests it is less determined to develop nuclear weapons than we have been judging since 2005.”
The declassification comes as a surprise. Director of National Intelligence Michael McConnell had previously said that all NIEs in the future would be kept secret in their entirety.
According to the Washington rumor mill, the Iran NIE has been held back for a year while Vice President Dick Cheney attempted to get analysts to change their conclusions. The Bush administration’s statements about Iran have counted on the fact that most media organizations would fail to distinguish between a “nuclear program” and a nuclear weapons program, and that most Americans don’t know the difference between enriched uranium (used for nuclear reactors ) and highly enriched uranium (for nuclear warheads).
UPDATE: From TPM’s Josh Marshall:
There’s a secondary, though still very interesting question, of just why the NIE findings were released at all, and what intra-administration in-fighting might be behind it. But it shows us once again, for anyone who needed showing, that everything this administration says on national security matters should be considered presumptively not only false, but actually the opposite of what is in fact true, until clear evidence to the contrary becomes available. They’re big liars.
UPDATE: Based on the NIE, Slate’s Fred Kaplan concludes:
If there was ever a possibility that President George W. Bush would drop bombs on Iran, the chances have now shrunk to nearly zero.
UPDATE: Danger Room’s Noah Shachtman speculates that the unexpected release of the NIE key judgments may have been prompted by a responsible effort to rescue diplomatic negotiations with Iran.
UPDATE: Think Progress reports that senior intelligence officers threatened to go to the media if the Iran NIE key judgments were not made public.
December 3rd, 2007 at 2:32 pm
B bu but, Iran’s got to have the nukes, ’cause Bush couldn’t find ‘em under his desk or behind the curtains! Yuk yuk.
December 4th, 2007 at 6:41 pm
Let us remember that Israel is absolutely disagreeing with all of our intelligence agencies that have discovered that no, the Iranians don’t have WMD or any nukes. Perhaps we should review the dual passport shills that led us directly into the quagmire we are yet to dispose of Iraq.
Here they are banging the war drum with our imbecile
If this truth about what Israel is saying about Iran after the “revelation” we have happened upon, concerning their nuclear weapons production, doesn’t show what they really want from us, then I imagine nothing will. The gig is up for israels’ war mongers. It appears the Big Dummy(US) won’t take care of their problems after all.
Congratulations America for finally waking the Hell UP!!
December 4th, 2007 at 7:26 pm
I don’t get why Irans’ nuclear power pursuit is any worse than the pakistani nukes or the israeli nukes (You know the ones no one ever talk about). Then there’s our nukes! Nukes in space, Nukes under the sea! Nukes in suitcases…all of em triggered by the very button that Darth Cheney and W hover over. That neither of these two upstanding pillars of wisdom have maintained the sheen on thier triple A honesty rating and are still our guiding lights is kinda cracked to me. Says something about uh’merkin values.
December 4th, 2007 at 9:47 pm
Really Cav, the difference is that israel is so “rational”.
Remember class, that America is the only country on the face of the Earth to have ever nuked a human population, but then again, the Japs had it coming. Read War Without Mercy, John W. Dower.
Bombs Away
We were never closer as when kennedy had his sweaty palm near the “button”, and who was it that actually gave the order to nuke a human population?
That would be the democrat…Harry Truman..not that there’s anything wrong with him.
Ah, I love the contradictions of history…just no way out.
December 5th, 2007 at 12:07 pm
I’d agree with that. I trully think the danger of Iran having nukes is not that they would have them per se, rather, the issue is that both Israel and Iran would have them. I certainly don’t trust Israel to not do something stupid.
On another note concerning Israel: Todays Trib Gwynne Dyer writes an interesting op-ed about the potential end of the Jewish State if it does not get down to business with a two state plan.
December 5th, 2007 at 1:48 pm
Thank you both. Glenn for your perspective on just who is who and historical contradictions, J.D’ for the notion that Israel is capable of stupid behavior. Who’da thunk.
January 14th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
[...] with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert last week, Bush disavowed his own administration’s recent National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iran. The NIE concluded with “high confidence” that Iran halted its nuclear weapons program [...]
January 29th, 2008 at 3:01 pm
[...] Iran does not have a nuclear weapons program and poses no threat to our national security. An attack on Iran, like the invasion of Iraq, would be a blatant violation of international law and treaties. A large majority of Americans are opposed to military action against Iran. [...]
March 6th, 2008 at 11:10 am
[...] course, Iran has no nuclear weapons program. However, we have to consider that the Bush administration has never let real-world information [...]