One Utah

Over on Foreign Policy Forum, Nicholas Berry has a concise essay that ought to be the last word on Iraq and Afghanistan. As if!

Analyzing how wars are won has taken a back seat to measuring the level of violence in Iraq and Afghanistan, as if a mere downturn in violence is the key path to victory. Perhaps one reason for this is that any proper analysis would indicate neither war is winnable, at least by the United States. That Bush administration officials and military commanders are talking about both wars lasting into the indefinite future only confirms that winning them is more than illusive. It is impossible.

As General Sanchez, formerly the US commander in Baghdad, said last October: “The best we can do with this flawed approach is stave off defeat.”

IRAQ

• As long as the United States is the principal fighting force against the insurgents and their foreign allies, there is no way that these enemies will stop fighting.
• Counterinsurgency doctrine calls for a force of over 350,000 to be able to police Iraq. This is not possible under current U.S. force levels. Nor is a dramatic increase in the Army and Marines politically viable.
• The insurgents are Iraqis. Where would they go to leave the field of battle? Very few of the two million refugees who have fled to Iran and Syria were combatants. And why should the insurgents go when their aim is to gain or regain political power in their homeland?

AFGHANISTAN

• As long as the occupation persists, fighting is not going to stop. The insurgent Taliban forces and bin Laden’s al-Qaeda fighters have absolutely no intention of changing sides. They want to bleed the U.S.-led occupation forces and force their withdrawal.
• Evidently, the 43,000 foreign troops (30,000 under NATO including 14,000 from the U.S., and 13,000 U.S. troops under U.S. command) are insufficient for domestic control. Some 3,200 Marines will be sent as reinforcements this spring. According to the commander of NATO forces in Afghanistan, Gen. Dan K. McNeill, official American military counterinsurgency doctrine stipulates that more than 400,000 troops would be required in Afghanistan.
• Virtually every male in Afghanistan is armed. No government has ever controlled the country. Afghanistan is a tribal society, where one’s tribe demands loyalty over nationality. Tribes exist within the main ethnic groups – Pashtun, Uzbek, Tajik, and Hazara. Even without the foreign occupation, the social fragmentation of the country guarantees fighting over land, opium, religion, and office.

The sad truth is, every American military strategist knows all this. Many are unwilling to speak out because they have careers to protect or they don’t believe in contradicting any Commander in Chief no matter how wrongheaded.

UPDATE:
A desperate Army is now offering a $40,000 signing bonus to new recruits. The downside: they are almost guaranteed to serve in Iraq or Afghanistan.

This entry was posted Tuesday, February 19th, 2008 at 11:06 am and is filed under Afghanistan, Disaster, Iraq, National Politics, This Blog, War. Both comments and pings are currently closed.