One Utah

We knew this day was coming. I actually thought it wouldn’t happen until about five months from now.

From the London Times:

Areas of Baghdad fall to militias as Iraqi Army falters in Basra

Iraq’s Prime Minister was staring into the abyss today after his operation to crush militia strongholds in Basra stalled, members of his own security forces defected and district after district of his own capital fell to Shia militia gunmen.

With the threat of a civil war looming in the south, Nouri al-Maliki’s police chief in Basra narrowly escaped assassination in the crucial port city, while in Baghdad, the spokesman for the Iraqi side of the US military surge was kidnapped by gunmen and his house burnt to the ground.

Saboteurs also blew up one of Iraq’s two main oil pipelines from Basra, cutting at least a third of the exports from the city which provides 80 per cent of government revenue, a clear sign that the militias — who siphon significant sums off the oil smuggling trade — would not stop at mere insurrection.

…In Baghdad, the Mahdi Army took over neighbourhood after neighbourhood, some amid heavy fighting, others without firing a shot.

In New Baghdad, militiamen simply ordered the police to leave their checkpoints: the officers complied en masse and the guerrillas stepped out of the shadows to take over their checkpoints.

I expected the Mahdi Army to mount a “Tet Offensive” in late summer to drive home the point that Americans are not wanted in Iraq. Why is it happening now?

Just speculation on my part, but it seems that Maliki’s government succumbed to U.S. pressure to do something about regaining control of Basra before provincial elections and a referendum on federalism planned for this year. Maliki’s people probably anticipated such an attack would trigger a counteroffensive. Apparently, a guarantee of American military backup and air support got them to move.

Further speculation. Could it be that General Petraeus wanted to force the Mahdi Army to go to war before the “surge” troops are withdrawn? And fight this out well before the U.S. election? One could argue that maintaining the initiative is less risky than waiting.

Updates as new information comes in…

From the Washington Post:

“This fight is another potential turning point,” said John McCreary, a former Defense Intelligence Agency analyst. “If Maliki does not win in Basra, he will not win anywhere, and instability will increase. If he stabilizes Basra, he gets the chance to repeat his success in another town.”

From the New York Times:
Iraqi Army’s Assault on Militias in Basra Stalls

During a briefing in Baghdad on Wednesday, a British military official said that of the nearly 30,000 Iraqi security forces involved in the assault, almost 16,000 were Basra police forces, which have long been suspected of being infiltrated by the same militias the assault was intended to root out. . . .

Thousands in Baghdad Protest Basra Assault

WaPo columnist Dan Froomkin: Spinning the Bloodshed in Basra

This entry was posted Thursday, March 27th, 2008 at 12:45 pm and is filed under Disaster, Iraq, National Politics, War. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.