Via DailyKos, Pulitzer Prize winning author Steve Coll speculates that Osama bin Laden (OBL) might be found before the November elections. His reasoning goes like this:

• Pakistan’s Musharraf regime believed that their $10 billion aid package might be reduced if they tracked down too many al Qaeda leaders
• Key elements of the regime had close ties to Islamic extremists, another reason to go slow
• The new Pakistani government is unhappy with the USA for supporting authoritarianism but also hostile to al Qaeda
• They realize that a new administration headed by Barack Obama might get tough on Pakistan and/or take unilateral action
• Meanwhile, the local population in Waziristan is turning against OBL, increasing the chances someone will drop a dime on him

Meanwhile, it’s the election silly season in the USA. What if Bush takes credit for capturing or killing OBL, and declares “mission accomplished” (again)? What if John McCain claims justification for all the mistaken policies of the last seven years? Are Democrats still prepared to criticize the Bush administration’s many failures in the so-called Global War on Terror? Will the media put OBL in perspective or just jump with joy?