Richard Warnick‘It’s not South Ossetia we are at war with, it’s Russia’
Russian T-90 tanks advancing on Tskhinvali in South Ossetia.
This is going to go down in history as one of those miscalculations that led straight to disaster. Here’s the story in brief, based on a well-written article in The Telegraph and a column by Edward Lucas in The Times:
Following the dissolution of the Soviet Union, violent separatist conflicts broke out in the autonomous regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgia’s ragtag army was forced to retreat in humiliation by Ossetian irregulars in 1992.
Today, however, largely thanks to U.S. military aid, Georgia’s 18,000-strong army is the best-trained and equipped fighting force in the Caucasus. There are 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq. Georgia wants to join NATO.
Following weeks of escalating provocations, including hours of heavy shelling by the Russian-backed breakaway province and signs of large-scale Russian reinforcement, the order was given to launch a full-scale assault on South Ossetia’s Moscow-backed regime this morning. Georgian forces appeared to make easy progress, but it looks like they fell into a trap.
[A]s the day wore on it became apparent that Georgian president Mikheil Saakashvili’s gamble of Russian non-intervention had backfired. Retaliating swiftly, Russia commenced a combined aerial and land assault on Georgian forces, launching Moscow’s first foreign military intervention since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan…
“It’s not South Ossetia we are at war with, it’s Russia,” the company’s commander said, shaking his head at the magnitude of his statement.
The Georgians are now in retreat, and the Russian Army is re-taking the South Ossetian capital of Tskhinvali. Air strikes have hit the nearby town of Gori and a military base close to the Georgian capital Tbilisi, where U.S. advisers are stationed. It’s not clear how much farther Russia is prepared to go.
UPDATES after the break…
UPDATE: Early on the second day of the war, bombs rocked government buildings in Tbilisi. More air strikes hit Georgia’s largest Black Sea port, Poti, and other economic targets. Heavy casualties have reported on both sides from the fighting in and around Tskhinvali. Georgia has asked the United States for planes to bring back its 2,000 troops serving as part of the U.S.-led coalition in Iraq, a U.S. official said.
UPDATE: Danger Room has much more on what Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili says is a “full-scale military invasion,” including video, links and some strategic analysis.
UPDATE: Abkhazia is now in the war too. They are attacking Georgian forces in the disputed Kodori Gorge. The New York Times reports that Russia’s Black Sea is expected to land troops at Ochamchire, a port on the Abkhaz coast.
UPDATE: Writing in Slate, Anne Applebaum points out the failure of U.S. foreign policy (focused for years on Iraq at the expense of everything else) that made this war almost inevitable:
[T]he time to deal with this conflict was two years ago or four years ago. That there was a security vacuum in the Caucasus; that this vacuum was dangerous; that war was likely; that Georgia, an eager ally of the United States, would not come out of it well; that a successful invasion of Georgia, a country with U.S. troops on its soil, would reflect badly on the West—all of that has been obvious for a long time. Cowardice, weakness, lack of ideas, and above all the distraction of other events prevented any deeper engagement. And now it may be too late.
UPDATE: President Saakashvili was interviewed on Wolf Blitzer’s Sunday morning CNN show. He said he personally witnessed a Russian air attack on a highway crowded with fleeing civilians. The Tbilisi international airport was also bombed. The Russians have begun a naval blockade of Georgia’s Black Sea coast. Georgian troops in South Ossetia are pulling back to their start line in the hope of setting conditions for a cease-fire. “We have no interest whatsoever in pursuing hostilities,” said Saakashvili, who explained that Georgia lacks enough air defense capability to defend civilian areas. “History will judge very badly the people who are doing this.”
The Russians may not stop anytime soon. The Georgian president mentioned what was written on an unexploded bomb attached to a shot-down Russian plane: “This is for Americans. This is for NATO.”
UPDATE: On Monday, President Saakashvili asked for a cease-fire. Meanwhile, reports indicate the Russians have sunk two Georgian vessels on the Black Sea. Russian troops overran the Georgian city of Gori and the towns of Senaki, Zugdidi and Kurga.
UPDATE: Matthew Yglesias asks (and he’s not the only one asking): What Was Saakashvili Thinking?
August 8th, 2008 at 8:32 pm
In light of the apparent weakness displayed in Iraq and Afghanistan by US policies, military and political, and the ill advised placement of offensive nuclear missiles in Czechoslovakia by the Bush administration, I would venture to say that the recharged Russians under Putin and Medvedev, will go all the way.
We are trying to expand our “empire”. They are reclaiming theirs.
August 8th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
It is not true. Georgia started war against separatists at night before Olympic Games. They killed 1400 civilians. About 90% of people in South Ossetia has Russian citizenship. Russia has now way just to protect people. I was terribly impressed when I read CNN. They lie. Now I think there is NO DEMOCRACY IN THE USA if your main media lie.
August 9th, 2008 at 6:42 am
No doubt Alex, Russia is supporting the people in their traditional holdings and sphere of influence, as protector, and the stooge “democracies” of the west in these regions are being shown for what they are, and being liquidated.
August 9th, 2008 at 6:54 am
I spent considerable time yesterday talking with my friend who is a native Georgian, living in the U.S. now for 12 years, having fled during a previous period of military action. Her perspective, of course, is far different from that of Alex (above).
Georgia has a long history of invasions from other countries for economic, political, and strategic reasons. Georgians did not join with Russia in the revolution of the early 1900’s and rejected communism. However, they were unable to resist militarily, and eventually became part of the Soviet Union. After the breakup of the Soviet Union, Russia continued to desire control of Georgia. The U.S. has funneled(and continues to) a great deal of money and armaments into Georgia to help them to maintain their independence from Russia, though this independence has been at great economic hardship to Georgians.
This is an important fact from my friend: In the two regions of conflict, Russia issued Russian passports to practically all citizens, making them Russian citizens. These areas also become popular for Russian immigrants. So while these areas are said to be largely occupied by “Russians”, that is mostly true because of the issuing of Russian passports and not because of ethnic or national origin.
A key economic issue here is a valuable pipeline (oil or natural gas, I don’t recall) that provides significant income to Georgia. Also desirable are the natural resources, and seashore resorts. High (and wealthy) Russian officials have large real estate and business investments in the regions.
Georgians are fighters and they value their independence from Russia. I have no doubt the timing of this attack was well selected as Alex points out. But it is not hard to understand why Georgians want the Russian military out of Georgia.
I hope the U.S. is capable of the diplomacy needed to handle this tricky situation. Georgia remains an important strategic ally, but we surely don’t want to get sucked into a military action that finds us facing Russia as our opponent.
August 9th, 2008 at 2:30 pm
The opinion piece I linked to is sympathetic to Georgia, however Edward Lucas believes the Georgian government allowed itself to be provoked into launching an ill-advised attack. Russia wanted this to happen now, while they hold significant military and diplomatic advantages.
August 9th, 2008 at 5:22 pm
Lucas is, no doubt, correct. Russia is making the most of their advantage at this moment, and Georgia appears to be no military match. If Lucas is right, it’s an interesting political gamble on the part of Putin that the U.S. would not become militarily involved to help its ally.
I think Thomas McCrae, above, has it right. “We are trying to expand our “empire”. They are reclaiming theirs.”
And Georgia is the unwitting pawn.
August 10th, 2008 at 11:53 am
Typos excepted, this is an interesting perspective, on the behind the scenes machinations, that are influencing this conflict.
August 10th, 2008 at 1:39 pm
One aspect of the conflict mentioned by the article Sasha linked to: this may be the first war triggered in part by the use of UAVs (referred to in the article as RPVs). Both Russia and Abkhazia have shot down Georgian UAVs in recent months.
August 11th, 2008 at 6:56 am
Where do the Turks sit on this issue? They have a strong military force, proximity to the conflict, and NATO membership.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:17 am
Turkey is giving (non-military) aid to Georgia, and the Russians aren’t happy about it. However at this point, if the Georgians ever had any fantasies about winning vs. Russia, they’ve given up on them. The Georgian economy has been targeted, with everything from bombs to cyber attacks. Looks like Russia gets whatever they want, Saakashvili is suing for peace.
August 11th, 2008 at 8:20 am
The Turks have the good sense to remain neutral, lest they act as a Nato stooge, and get embroiled in the machinations of Anglo-American motivations which include Israel, to no positive purpose.
Their sphere is well defined and not part of Russian concerns. as long as they stay out of it, ad do not serve as a staging area, Russia will have no press to interfere, or support their enemies along their frontier with Iraqs’ Kurds.
They will not cooperate with Nato, are a weak member, with geo-political concerns that transcend the press of western supported attempts to encircle and isolate Russia in its traditonal sphere of influence.
In short, they do not need any trouble. We might ask for help, but likely will meet ambivalence.
August 11th, 2008 at 9:15 am
Sasha, what do you think Ukraine will do? Have they really threatened to evict the Russian Black Sea fleet?
August 12th, 2008 at 9:51 am
Ukraine evicting the Black Sea fleet is rather like Cuba saying they are going to drive the US military from Gitmo.
They do not have the means, nor do they have temerity. They can of course say it, receive a pat on the head from the Anglo-American oligarchy, bent on control of oil bearing lands, but as we have noticed maybe, Russia is not listening. Or it is speaking in the only terms its adversaries understands.
The scenario is what it has been like in our own numerous interventions of opportunity all over Central America, in what is the Monroe Doctrine. Proximity defines the future in the region, and the neo-con plan is on the rocks, and currently burning, its power too far flung, to make anything but noise. Georgia as a democracy is not serious to Russia, it being installed during the Russian lapse of power after its collapse.
Those were the good old days for the Soros/neo cons.
August 12th, 2008 at 9:55 am
I love it.
South Ossettia attacks Georgian “peacekeepers”.
Georgia invades South Ossettia.
Russia invades South Ossettia and bombs George.
One Utah proclaims, “IT’S ALL BUSH’S FAULT”.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:00 am
jdberger– It’s Bush’s fault, and we are not the only ones saying it.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:48 am
Richard,
it gives me unending enjoyment when, to bolster your arguments, you link to your own posts…
August 12th, 2008 at 3:20 pm
It is no ones “fault”, it is the habit of empire to encourage erstwhile allies to reach for the stars, at their own expense of course.
If Georgia had made a go of it, and things had gone differently(laugh) Bush would be the veritble George Washington of Georgia. Like the way that sounds.
So now he is the oppositions goat. We once again foolishly display the limits of our influence and power, and right in front of the most powerful adversary. SunTzu would not be amused.
August 12th, 2008 at 7:15 pm
I’m really ambivalent about the whole issue of Ossetia’s autonomy. Does Ossetia have the right to independence? Is Georgia trying to occupy a region which has established virtual autonomy for over a decade? Or is Georgia exercising its legitimate right to prevent an illegal seccession, a la Jackson’s threat to invade S. Carolina to prevent secession, and the Civil War? What do you think?
August 13th, 2008 at 12:46 am
I, for one, am not willing to go to war over South Ossetia. Had Georgia been a member of NATO, that might really be on the table. Alliances aren’t free, and security guarantees should only be extended after sober deliberation, consultation with our allies, and the approval of Congress.
August 13th, 2008 at 5:58 am
Demoralized and wrong, the U.S. Isreal and others must find a new place for thier weapons. With an exit strategy being forced on to the murderous pricks, there seems to be only one alternative,,,
Wait for it…
Lets strike up the IRAN ‘campain’. That ought to divert attention from McCain’s ultra-lameness!
August 13th, 2008 at 8:19 am
Milosevic tried to keep breakaway republics from leaving the federation of Yugoslavia and had his country blown up by us. The only areas with a “right to exist” as nations are those with powerful allies, guns and money. The rest is just posturing.
Don’t know about any of you, but fighting Russia in their backyard isn’t like being in Iraq, a country of 25 million that has taken 8 years to keep the lid on. We can talk, complain, etc. but that is about it.
We have just watched a manuever in the Great Game. This one was like pushing a pawn up to the opponents pawn defense, and expecting it to live on our part. It’s done now, we are strung out, broke, and the event occurred in a place where we have limited power projection capability. What we will hear now is a bunch of evil empire, freedom and democracy rhetoric.
That is how the game of Real-politik is played.
August 13th, 2008 at 8:50 am
That WAS quick Olmert! But wait just a darn second, will ya?
August 13th, 2008 at 8:50 am
This is not what I meant to have happen. ‘Scuse the double entry.
August 13th, 2008 at 9:53 am
I heard John McCain on the radio today saying, “I know I speak for all Americans when I say, we’re all Georgians today.”
I don’t know much about this Georgian thing yet, but don’t speak for me, asshole!
August 13th, 2008 at 10:10 am
This morning on CNN, Georgian President Saakashvili called McCain’s bluff:
August 13th, 2008 at 1:12 pm
We’re Georgian alright, as in George Bushs’ subjects, and his buddies that aided the addled Saakashivili . One idiot leading another, the blind leading the blind.
I hear there is a pile of brush to be cut on the Abkhazian frontier.
If I were Bush, I’d fly Georgias’ dumbass army back to Iraq.
The real question is, who would Obama bomb?
August 13th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
President Bush is headed to Crawford, Texas for two weeks of vacation time. You can always count on him in a crisis– when the going gets tough, he’s relaxed as can be.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Richard - your data is old. The President is staying in Washington.
Of course, who’s to say that he couldn’t get more work done in Crawford. I, for one, work better at home. Less distractions.