Richard WarnickGeorgia Paid The Price For Bush’s Cheap Talk
Read the sad story in The New York Times about the Georgian retreat from South Ossetia, and you have to admit this fiasco is partly our fault– i.e. President George Bush’s fault.
One soldier, his face a mask of exhaustion, cradled a Kalashnikov.
“We killed as many of them as we could,” he said. “But where are our friends?”
It was the question of the day. As Russian forces massed Sunday on two fronts, Georgians were heading south with whatever they could carry. When they met Western journalists, they all said the same thing: Where is the United States? When is NATO coming?
An American ally is getting creamed by Russia, and there is nothing Bush and Cheney can do about it but issue statements of dismay.
NATO Summit in Bucharest last April
Saakashvili dodges Russian bombs
Bush having fun at Olympics
From Josh Marshall on Talking Points Memo:
What pretty much everyone who’s paying attention can see is that the US casually made a bunch of promises and representations to the Georgians which we were obviously neither prepared to or interested in backing up. …[W]hat’s both tragic and almost comical is that a lot of Georgians actually expected that we’d come to their defense militarily if got themselves into a real shooting war with the Russians. They’ve clearly paid a steep price for that cheap talk.
From Fred Kaplan on Slate:
Regardless of what happens next, it is worth asking what the Bush people were thinking when they egged on Mikheil Saakashvili, Georgia’s young, Western-educated president, to apply for NATO membership, send 2,000 of his troops to Iraq as a full-fledged U.S. ally, and receive tactical training and weapons from our military. Did they really think Putin would sit by and see another border state (and former province of the Russian empire) slip away to the West?
I think the culpability of the Bush administration goes even further. I think Bush, through his ignorance of the history of international relations, pursued policies in Iraq and elsewhere based on the boneheaded principle of “who’s gonna stop us?” Well, that made it a lot easier for Russia to operate by that same principle, didn’t it? What goes around comes around, as they say at the Georgetown University School of Foreign Service.
Did the Bush administration try to warn Georgia’s cocky President Saakashvili not to order an ill-advised attack on South Ossetia? Did they tell him about the Russian forces poised to take advantage of such an opportunity? With friends like Bush, Georgia doesn’t need enemies.
Acknowledgment: Pictures via Michael Shaw, The Huffington Post.
Check below for updates…
UPDATE: A McClatchy story by Jonathan Landay reports claims that U.S. soldiers stationed in Georgia had no advance knowledge of the Georgian assault on South Ossetia. The Bush administration also says that efforts were made to warn the Georgian government to exercise restraint, although they also admit our intelligence failed to detect the buildup of Russian forces.
UPDATE: Where has Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, the much-touted Russia expert, been for the last five days? She’s on vacation.
UPDATE: For whatever reason, Matthew Yglesias has been following the various neocon pronouncements (all wrong). Russia fought a limited war.
Now I doubt Russia is showing restraint out of the goodness of Vladimir Putin’s heart, but he’s also not showing restraint because the United States did anything to stop him. Rather, even in the absence of a “tough” American response, Putin has stuck to relatively moderate goals because it’s not actually true that the “lessons of Munich” are applicable to every single event in the world. Occupying Georgia would be more trouble than it’s worth, so it’s not going to happen, and Russia won’t attack Ukraine either. The past week’s events have been terrible for Georgians, but not world-historical in their significance.
UPDATE: CQ’s Jeff Stein finds it hard to believe the Bush administration’s claim the Pentagon and CIA were caught by surprise last Friday. “That just doesn’t pass the laugh test.” OK, would you believe…
UPDATE: Live on CNN this morning, Georgian President Saakashvili called John McCain’s bluff:
“Yesterday, I heard Sen. McCain say, ‘We are all Georgians now… Well, very nice, you know, very cheering for us to hear that, but OK, it’s time to pass from this. From words to deeds.”
UPDATE: The Huffington Post now has a special page on the Russia Georgia War with news updates.
UPDATE: President Saakashvili told his people Wednesday that the U.S. military will take control of the ex-Soviet state’s seaports and airports as part of a humanitarian aid mission amid Georgia’s battle with Russia, but the Pentagon quickly shot down the claim.
UPDATE: Mark Kleiman on HuffPo: How the Bush Administration Created the Disaster in Georgia. It’s even worse than we first thought.
UPDATE: John McCain condemns Russia for having the temerity to cross an international boundary — “in the 21st century, nations don’t invade other nations.” Matthew Yglesias comments, “We all recall, of course, John McCain’s outrage when the United States violated this rule back in 2003.”
August 12th, 2008 at 9:44 am
Is it irony or simply Cheney’s twisted sense of humor, that it was the Georgia National Guard, as in U.S.A.’s Georgia state, that spent a good part of July ‘08 training those other Georgian troops. For why? Ask Dick.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:00 am
Georgias’ Bush, didn’t his Dad do the same thing for those that expected US help in rising up against Saddam after Gulf War 1?
For Bush and Co. prodding on presidential college stooges doesn’t cost very much in their mind. Now bush gets to vilify Russia with the blood of Georgians. On the cheap.
As if the Nato Europeans who have signed energy deals with Russia, and have the primary pipelines supplying their countries running through Georgia, would invade to support an Anglo-American puppet. Not only is Bush out of touch, but there would have been very little difference whoever would be in charge of the US. We are just that far in the weeds when it comes to geo-politics, and international relations.
Knowing some history couldn’t hurt. To anyone in the know, this was all too predictable.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:15 am
True to form. Never pass an opportunity to blame America first. Perhaps Russia wants the Soviet Union back and a return to the glory days of the Communist workers paradise like the workers in China now enjoy.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:17 am
Ken– Do you want to defend Bush’s policy regarding Georgia and Russia? Be my guest.
August 12th, 2008 at 10:41 am
So, Richard? You don’t think that Georgia should be allowed to join NATO?
What exactly about OUR foreign policy regarding Georgia and Russia do you disagree with (besides the fact that Bush is the President)?
August 12th, 2008 at 12:24 pm
Ken,
Thats why we are a great country.
Can you name any countries in which citizens cannot blame their gov’t?
August 12th, 2008 at 12:40 pm
Jd, try to think in terms of our response to the red menace if they had recently invaded Mexico, British Columbia and were now running exercises in Nova Scotia, all the while, arguing that they’d glassify Cuba for legally pursuing Nuclear Reaction.
Seems to me that our present administration is sort of bound to the old cold war mentality. I say, history aside, let’s give a little more enlightened way of relating thru the international arena a try. Can you say Diplomacy? Probably not if you have too great of an investment in those ’splodin’ thingies.
August 12th, 2008 at 12:46 pm
jdberger– What is the strategic justification for Georgia becoming a NATO member? Seems to me they were turned down for good reason.
I would prefer if the USA could act as an honest broker for peace in the Caucasus region. But Bush has blown that opportunity by taking a side and encouraging Georgia to act recklessly.
August 12th, 2008 at 1:42 pm
Cav? I don’t understand your question. Are you suggesting that the US invaded Georgia?
Or are you suggesting that we return to the “spheres of influence” detent of the 1800s?
As far as “Bush encouraged Georgia to act recklessly”…bullcrap, Richard. This is such common trope among the “America is a global bully” crowd. Surely Georgia couldn’t have rationally believed that the US, currently engaged in 2 major conflicts in Asia would like to get militarily involved in another, against one of the most powerful militaries in the world. It’s asinine to suggest it.
August 12th, 2008 at 1:50 pm
Maybe it’s a “common trope” because it’s the truth. What information can you bring us that indicates Bush acted responsibly? What would you say to the Georgians who now feel betrayed by the USA? Would you call them “asinine”?
August 12th, 2008 at 2:55 pm
Jd, the U.S. didn’t invade Georgia, they’re a ‘close ally’ of ours, don’t ya know. We just took the liberty to run training exercises in conjunction with a number of other countries in the region. Such is our might, such is our commitment to thwarting the Red Menace, (and perpetuating war), that Not three weeks after our ‘exercise’, Georgia somehow pissed the Ruskies to the extent that they bombed the hell out of Georgia and were staged to drop Nukes if it came to thet! Neither Chechnia, nor Afghanistan received such an intervention. This makes me wonder if Medvedev and Putin weren’t trying to make some sort of statement. Ya think?
August 12th, 2008 at 3:03 pm
What was so irresponsible, Richard?
What would I say to the Georgians who had the ridiculous idea that the US would go to WAR WITH RUSSIA to back their stupid play? Why should I have to say anything?
You’re walking with a friend, and he decides to pick a fight with the local chapter of the Hells Angels…
…when they finally unwire his jaw, and he asks you why didn’t you back him up, what do you say, Richard?
Would you call him asinine?
I would.
And I’m happy to let the Georgians know that they waved the red cape at the bull one too many times, also. In fact, I’ve already done so.
August 12th, 2008 at 3:08 pm
On the contrary, Cav. Russia’s wrapping up of hostilities with the Chechens actually frees up their guys to deal with the folks poking the anthill.
Afghanistan didn’t get the full weight of the Russian Bear?
August 12th, 2008 at 3:09 pm
Well jd, as asinine as it may sound, it is in fact what those dummies in Georgia imagined. They are complaining bitterly about it. It is the risk you take as an empire when you align yourself with weak minded fools like Saakashvilli. The Georgians expected Nato to come to their aid. They have learned the hard way the limits of the relationship they have with the West.
Not saying that we like the fact that Russia is reasserting itself in its traditional backyard, it is simply a recognition of real-politik concerning the recent events. The Russians have made these decisions in the obvious climate of American backing of regimes that could never co-exist with Russian hegemony in the region.
We certainly did encourage them to become democratic in the western model, and promised them what help they may need. What they got was a plane ride home from Iraq, a day late and a dollar short
August 12th, 2008 at 3:15 pm
Still waiting for jdberger or possibly Ken to unveil the wisdom of the Bush administration’s foreign policy towards Russia and Georgia.
August 12th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
Jd. Who is poking the anthill?
August 12th, 2008 at 4:14 pm
It could well be called “Russian roulette”, except that the administration is pointing the loaded Russian gun at the Georgian head. Sure the odds are terrible, but it isn’t our money and treasure that is being gambled.
August 12th, 2008 at 5:38 pm
The wisdom….
Gosh, from a Larry/Richard POV it’s making foreign policy a central tenet of the race for President.
Who do ya want? The guy who’s international foreign policy experience spans the vast sum of not even a whole Senate term, or an elder statesman, respected by friend and foe, alike?
And Richard, allies are always good. Wherever you find them.
That’s why you should smile more and scream less.
August 12th, 2008 at 5:52 pm
jd:
Are you referring to the same inexperienced guy that managed to assemble 200,000 Germans to hear him speak? Come on, man, get off the Hannity talking points.
August 12th, 2008 at 6:50 pm
No. I’m referring to the inexperienced guy who didn’t realize that Germans can’t vote in US elections….
I wonder why you fear Hannity, Rush et al. so much. Is it because they are effective?
Shouldn’t Obama be running a double digit lead in the polls?
August 12th, 2008 at 7:26 pm
jd:
Fear Hannity and Limpdork?? Get off the shit, man, it’s fucking with your brain!!
August 12th, 2008 at 7:49 pm
Albert,
Give me a break….Obama the superficial superstar drawing a crowd of 200,000. Even that was stage managed, literally to provide the appearance that he drew the crowd.
Try again
http://www.free-press-release.com/news/200807/1217183039.html
August 12th, 2008 at 9:22 pm
I am neither friend nor foe of John McCain, eminently friendly elderstatesman, yet I have zero respect for him. I just think that if he’s the republicans offering, they must be trying to throw this election to Obama in hopes of saddling his administration (and all of us of every stripe) with a complete meltdown of a rapture-dreaming pregnant mother of all snafus fubar. If McCain does win, however, it’ll just be more of the same, perhaps even worse. They do have a stunning record of ‘accomplishments’. That kinda pisses me off. These shits know what they’re doing. And they have a vast majority (though not all) of the cards.
Btw, saw a bumper sticker today: I’d rather a Democrat who might crumble, than a Republican who is just plain evil.
Obama will be just fine.
August 12th, 2008 at 9:31 pm
Well said, cav.
I am, however somewhat comforted by the adage ABB. Even McCain cannot be as bad as Bush … can he?
August 12th, 2008 at 9:42 pm
Let’s not find out! Please.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:47 am
McCain does seem to be taking on the role of the spaced-out dimwit president that has worked so well since Reagan’s second term. You can’t expect the president to answer for anything if he can’t think or form sentences, so the buck doesn’t really stop anywhere. Of course this would never work without the corporate media and Nancy Pelosi acting like they can’t figure out how to hold anybody accountable while laughing their asses off at the correspondence dinners.
August 13th, 2008 at 5:37 am
Albert,
You’ve got to be kidding me.
Try again.
The people didn’t come to see Obama the superficial superstar!!
August 13th, 2008 at 8:19 am
I don’t want the guy whose chief foreign policy adviser is a paid employee of the Georgian government. That would be John McCain. McCain also wants to kick Russia out of the G-8 and set up a parallel U.N. that would exclude Russia. Bush made a lot of incredible foreign policy blunders, but at least he hasn’t re-started the Cold War.
August 13th, 2008 at 8:58 am
Richard,
I’ve tried to post a comment on this several times, it seem the spam filters are grabbing it. Anything I’ve done wrong lately to be put on the spam list?
This went through, Let’s see if the spam filter grabs it if I add the original comment.
Albert,
You’ve got to be kidding me, 200,000 people to see the superficial superstar Obama?
“While coverage of Senator Obama’s Berlin speech provided audiences here at home nothing less that a visual “shock and awe,” it neglected to mention that the well-hyped speech had an opening act: a gratis concert by two wildly popular groups, Reggae artist Patrice and rock band Reamonn. While we appreciate the Obama Campaign’s hospitality, on behalf of furthering US international relations, offering free bratwurst, pizza and even beer for three hours during the free rock concert,
August 13th, 2008 at 9:01 am
Bob– I can probably rescue your comments from the spam folder. Let me know.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:16 am
Richard,
No need now, the comment I wanted to make went through. I was just beginning to wonder if I was banned or something. The response only had 1 link in it and a quote. Couldn’t figure out why it was going missing.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:45 pm
Bob:
Haha!!! Gee, can you provide a source other than the questionable “Free Press Release” you cite to to support your assertions re Obama’s German appearance? The comments to that rag are quite telling.
No worries, as you will quickly become accustomed to the title: “President Obama.”
PS. A little research on your part will show that many of the most “experienced” presidents have been the most miserable failures, too.
August 13th, 2008 at 1:54 pm
Nobody has commented on the picture of Bush on the beach volleyball court, so I will. I wonder if Laura saw that?
August 13th, 2008 at 2:37 pm
Sure Albert,
How about this one
Or another?
Here is another showing the information on the superficial superstar’s appearance in Berlin
This is harder then I thought it would be…maybe it is harder because the Leftstream Media isn’t reporting all the facts.
August 13th, 2008 at 2:48 pm
Bob:
You crack me up!!! Here is the first paragraph of the first one of your news bulitens that I opened:
(emphasis added).
Now tell me, Bob, how do you know the crowd showed up for the band and not Obama? For someone who generally presents his arguments in well thought out fashion, you provided a real snow job during the dog days of summer on this one!
Now say after me, Bobby: “President Obama!” Gotta nice ring to it, don’t you think?
August 13th, 2008 at 2:56 pm
Albert,
Ask yourself this question, if John McCain had gone to Europe, had not 1 but 2 popular bands open for him; how would the media have reported it?
I picked 3 sources, even a left leaning one to show you there was some. Find the information from anyone of the 3 network anchors that accompanied him. How about any one of the dozen major newspapers?
Why isn’t it being covered ?
Because the Leftstream Media is in the bag for Obama. Over and Over again we hear reports of the speech but not on the details prior to it. For me, it’s another example of how little substance Obama has.
August 13th, 2008 at 3:32 pm
Bob:
Now IROFLMAO! Open your eyes, set aside your ingrained bias, and you will see plenty of substance.
BTW, if you haven’t done it yet, google “experienced presidents” and start reading. Your apparent requirement that a president must have “experience” in order to be a good president will be seriously challenged.
Happy reading … and find an air conditioned spot, too, as the heat is taking serious toll on your logic and generally impressive debating style.
PS Don’t be too depressed - McCain did get a bunch of Harley riders to listen to his talk just before the wet t-shirt contest. Stop, Bob, just stop. I’m now laughing uncontrollably.
August 13th, 2008 at 4:03 pm
McCain volunteered Cindy for the Miss Buffalo Chip contest, which is rumored to put most wet-T contests to shame. Might have been worth a few votes if she was game.
August 13th, 2008 at 9:34 pm
Nothing to report - concert-goers would have left following encore of last band to play.
August 13th, 2008 at 10:53 pm
If Pink Floyd reunited for a concert and Orrin Hatch gave a speech after, would anybody stay for the speech?
Would Bob S. and jdberger stay for the speech?
Would Pink Floyd have anything to do with an event that included Orrin Hatch?
These are baffling questions.
August 14th, 2008 at 7:56 am
This is now silly. Europeans aren’t electing a president, we are. It makes no difference in that regard if Obama can sell tickets.
The interesting facet of recent events, is that attempted encirclement of Russia by “democratic” western stooges, is the primary plan of Obamas’ foreign policy adviser, Zbignew Brezinski. From the preliminary look of it, it is not faring so well. We can expect an Obama presidency to follow in the direction we see now, vilifying Russia, and attempting to enter their sphere of influence for the purpose of economic advantage.
If careless, we will be involved in conflict continually if this posture is maintained. So truly, as difficult as it is to fathom, the Bush policies will be continued, as in our current situation, we can afford to do nothing else. It is this, or geo-political marginalization, which could be inevitable anyway. Brezinski has wild plans instead of accepting defeat in this arena.
It will shock Obamas’ supporters is what I believe. McCain is the obvious path, Obama is the stealth one. Both paths lead to the same conclusion.
August 14th, 2008 at 8:27 am
Good point, Thomas. Thanks.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:19 am
I think Thomas is right about Brezinski. Some people need to realize the Cold War is over. The Russians are very aware of that fact, and they are acting according to the new reality.
You might think our national security policy people would want to partner with the Russians against the Islamic threat that the neocons seem to think represents the new Cold War.
August 14th, 2008 at 9:32 am
Tom:
Sorry, dude, but you are the silly one. In case you haven’t noticed, the US is now, thanks to Bush/Cheney, near universally hated around the world. Given that we now live in a global universe, while foreigners do not elect our president, it might be nice were we to elect a president who foreigners respect.
August 14th, 2008 at 4:12 pm
So we are hated, this does not change the reality that those that hate us do not pick our president.
We are in the years of Caligula, “Oderint dum metuant”.., let them hate, as long as they fear. The bush legacy. Sure it might be nice Albert, but it is as Machiavelli advised, it is good to be virtuous, until it is not, and your enemies would take advantage of you.
In confronting Russia we are once again facing big league people, people that own parts of America, Europe, the world, and then enjoining that interest with the goals of old Russia, communist or imperial. No matter who leads in this future apparent arena, from what is in front of us, the candidates are less than comforting.
We should be focusing on who in the country could properly lead us, and the options now certainly aren’t awe inspiring. Needs to happen in less than 2 years. Obama will get his chance if elected. World events may preclude any self driven agenda if this incident is any indication.