Richard WarnickAl-Qaeda (The Real One) Is a Bigger Threat Than Last Year
A little over a year ago, a National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) entitled The Terrorist Threat to the U.S. Homeland. concluded that the invasion and occupation of Iraq has fueled Sunni radicalism around the globe and has caused the terrorist threat to grow. While the Bush administration sent the bulk of our nation’s ground forces chasing after Iraqi insurgents calling themselves “al Qaeda in Iraq,” the real al-Qaeda was thriving in Pakistan and Afghanistan.
Now, as we observe the seventh anniversary of the now-famous August 6, 2001 President’s Daily Brief entitled “Bin Laden Determined to Strike in U.S.” our government’s senior terrorism analyst tells us al-Qaeda is more capable of attacking inside the United States than it was last year.
The remarks Tuesday by the intelligence analyst, Ted Gistaro, were the most comprehensive assessment of the Qaeda threat by an American official since the National Intelligence Estimate issued last summer, which concluded that Al Qaeda had largely rebuilt its haven in Pakistan’s tribal areas.
A year later, Mr. Gistaro said, the problem has only grown worse, in part because of a symbiotic relationship between Qaeda operatives and Pakistani militant groups based in the tribal areas.
“It is a stronger, more comfortable safe haven than it was for them a year ago,” said Mr. Gistaro, who supervises all intelligence reports on terrorism at the National Intelligence Council. He made his remarks in a speech here to the Washington Institute for Near East Policy.
…Mr. Gistaro said that Al Qaeda had “replenished its bench” with a more diverse group of operatives, many from North Africa and the Levant, as opposed to the cadre of Egyptians and Saudis who have historically dominated the group’s upper ranks.
Mr. Gistaro said that Al Qaeda had trained several dozen operatives in Pakistani camps who would be capable of attacks against Western targets; but he said that American intelligence agencies were not aware of any “specific, credible plots” to attack inside the United States.
With the election and inauguration of a new president coming up, Mr. Gistaro said, intelligence officials expect a surge in threat reporting about possible domestic attacks.
Here’s what our government knows for certain about Osama bin Laden: “He’s alive or dead. He’s in Afghanistan or somewhere else.” (Donald Rumsfeld, April 2002).
