Richard WarnickObama Moving Ahead in National Polls
For those in the know, Barack Obama has been sitting on a virtual lock on the Electoral College for some time (278, with 270 needed to win). The national opinion polls have been another story, however, neck-and-neck for months. This election should not be that close, with more than 80 percent of Americans saying they are dissatisfied with the way things are going.
Now Obama is pulling ahead at last, following last week’s flawless Democratic National Convention and McCain’s disastrous VP pick.
For the first time, Rasmussen has Obama at 51 percent, when “leaners” are included in the results. Gallup’s daily tracking poll also shows Obama with more support than ever before, leading McCain by eight points, 50 - 42 percent. The ARG poll of likely voters has got Obama ahead 49-43 percent.
UPDATE: Slate has more, with a handy map showing the toss-up states, which include Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Nevada, New Hampshire, North Dakota, Ohio and Virginia.
September 3rd, 2008 at 7:42 am
Richard,
Elections often get closer on election day, so a lead now is to be welcomed.
I figure that Obama will probably carry all the Kerry states, including New Hampshire and Michigan, both of which could be close. He will also likely carry Iowa and New Mexico, though those could be close, too. To win he needs one more of the following: Colorado, Ohio, and Virginia. They are considered purple states by those into such colors. Obama’s strength is that he only needs to carry one of those three. Ohio has been very much a swing state for a long time. Colorado and Virginia have generally voted Republican in presidential elections going back to 1968, though they are trending blue of late. Nevada without one of those three would lead to an Electoral College tie.
In a landslide, Obama might carry Florida, Montana, North Dakota, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina, but I consider those long shots. A lot can happy between now and November.
A lock on the Electoral College? Maybe. But not a lock that can’t be picked.
September 3rd, 2008 at 7:48 am
Leo– I hope Obama is working on the landslide scenario, it’s what we need to turn this country around.
September 3rd, 2008 at 9:18 am
We can always hope. Right now the tide is running our way.