Via Raw Story: The Bush administration is keeping a new National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Afghanistan under wraps until after the election.

Brian Ross of ABC News reports that the NIE describes the Afghanistan situation as “grim”, but there are “no plans to declassify” any of it before the election, according to one US official familiar with the process.

Seth Jones, an expert on Afghanistan at the Rand Corporation think tank, called the situation in Afghanistan “dire.”

“We are now at a tipping point, with about half of the country now penetrated by a range of Sunni militant groups including the Taliban and al Qaeda,” Jones said. Jones said there is growing concern that Dutch and Canadian forces in Afghanistan would “call it quits.”

“The US military would then need six, eight, maybe ten brigades but we just don’t have that money,” Jones said.

Last week, Admiral Michael Mullen, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, told Congress “we’re running out of time” in Afghanistan. “I’m not convinced we’re winning it in Afghanistan,” Adm. Mullen testified.

Perhaps foreshadowing the NIE assessment on Afghanistan, Adm. Mullen told Congress, “absent a broader international and interagency approach to the problems there, it is my professional opinion that no amount of troops in no amount of time can ever achieve all the objectives we seek in Afghanistan.”

Keeping the intelligence report under wraps would likely help Senator John McCain’s campaign. McCain has focused on what he sees as the success of the Iraq “surge,” and the temporarily diminished intensity of insurgent and sectarian battles in Iraq (the “surge” actually failed to achieve most of the declared objectives). Attention to problems in Afghanistan would put the spotlight on President Bush’s failures, which might rub off on the Republican presidential nominee.

An issue that does not get talked about nearly enough… The so-called “surge” led directly to the collapse of the Afghanistan strategy, as the few available combat brigades were sent to Iraq when reinforcements were desperately needed in Afghanistan.

UPDATE: From Brandon Friedman on VetVoice:
Afghanistan Now 15X Deadlier than Iraq
As Afghanistan Heats Up, U.S. Runs Out of Troops