McClatchy News Service has interviewed more than a half-dozen officials on condition of anonymity about a new top-secret National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Iraq. Such estimates reflect the consensus of all 16 U.S. intelligence agencies.

This NIE completely contradicts recent claims by the McCain campaign that “victory in Iraq is finally in sight.” It warns that unresolved ethnic and sectarian tensions in Iraq could unleash a new wave of violence, reversing short-term security improvements seen over the last year.

“Sons of Iraq” on patrol with U.S. soldiers in Baghdad

Here are the details leaked to McClatchy:

• The draft NIE warns that modest steps in security and political progress, like the recent passage of a provincial election law, are threatened by lingering disputes between the majority Shiite Arabs, Sunni Arabs, Kurds and other minorities.
• Sources of tension include a struggle between Sunni Arabs, Kurds and Turkmen for control of the oil-rich northern city of Kirkuk; and the Shiite-led central government’s unfulfilled vows to hire former Sunni insurgents who joined Awakening groups.
• The NIE also raises worries about what would happen if Moqtada al-Sadr, the anti-U.S. cleric, decides to reassert himself and his Sadrist movement. If Sadr abandons his cease-fire, it is unclear whether his Mahdi Army fighters would be harder to control this time.
• The embattled “Sons of Iraq” program may prove to be the ultimate challenge to sustained stability. The mostly Sunni former insurgents who are being paid by the U.S. military to protect their neighborhoods and to stop shooting at Americans are now facing persecution. Many of the roughly 100,000 men of the mostly Sunni paramilitary groups have fled to Syria, while others remain in Iraq, worried that the Shiite government will disband and detain them.
• The NIE findings parallel a Defense Department assessment last month that warned that despite “promising developments, security gains in Iraq remain fragile. A number of issues have the potential to upset progress.”
• The findings of the intelligence estimate appear to be reflected in recent statements by Army General David Petraeus, the former top U.S. commander in Iraq, who has called the situation “fragile” and “reversible” and said he will never declare victory there.

Of course, none of this information is really secret. It’s not even news to One Utah readers and many other people who get their information from reliable sources on the Web. The Bush administration is planning to keep this NIE classified top secret at least until after the election, however, because they cannot afford to release this kind of authoritative official confirmation of the facts on the ground in Iraq.

Previous One Utah posts:
Bush Administration Hiding Afghanistan NIE Until After Election (September 23)
Mosul: ‘People think the war is over, but they don’t realize the amount of contact that we receive out here’ (September 22)
CNN’s Michael Ware: McCain ‘has no idea what is going on in Iraq’ (September 10)
Iraqi Troops and Kurdish Peshmerga Forces are Bracing for Conflict (September 3)