Richard WarnickIraq Update
President-Elect Obama’s message of “change you can believe in” apparently resonates in Iraq, where Iraqi politicians have revealed the reason why they have been reluctant to agree on what looks like a favorable treaty deal to end the U.S. occupation. They didn’t trust the Bush administration, and were skeptical about McCain too.
“Before, the Iraqis were thinking that if they sign the pact, there will be no respect for the schedule of troop withdrawal by Dec. 31, 2011,” said Hadi al-Ameri, a powerful member of the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq, a major Shiite party. “If Republicans were still there, there would be no respect for this timetable. This is a positive step to have the same theory about the timetable as Mr. Obama.”
The Maliki government’s chief spokesman, Ali al-Dabbagh, says Iraqi leaders trust President-Elect Obama. “They respect him and feel that he can be a good friend,” Dabbagh said.
Al-Dabbagh reiterated the Iraqi demand for a fixed, unalterable withdrawal date. The treaty will also require unilateral U.S. military operations to cease by June 2009, effectively bringing the occupation to an end. “U.S. troops should be secluded to known camps,” Dabbagh said. “The Americans would be called whenever there is a need. Their movement would be limited.”
Maliki’s Green Zone government is opposed to any renewal or extension of the U.N. Security Council resolution that permits the presence of U.S. troops in Iraq, after it expires at the end of this year.
Maliki’s government will have to submit any treaty agreement to the Iraqi parliament. President-Elect Obama has said it is “unacceptable” for the White House not to seek treaty approval from the U.S. Congress. He has also stated that any agreement must make “absolutely clear that the U.S. will not maintain permanent bases in Iraq.”
Yesterday, an announcement from the Pentagon said that the 2nd Brigade of the 101st Airborne Division, which is based in northwest Baghdad, will begin withdrawing this month two months ahead of schedule. Another brigade from the 10th Mountain Division that was scheduled to go to Iraq in its place will instead deploy to Afghanistan. This sift in deployments will reduce the number of combat brigades in Iraq from 15 to 14.
The incoming Obama administration is expected to shift strategic emphasis away from Iraq and toward the escalating conflict in Afghanistan.
UPDATE: Matt Yglesias comments:
To the surprise of everyone except those of us who’ve been paying attention, it seems the election of Barack Obama is speeding the Iraqi political process along. After all, Obama wants to see American troops leave Iraq. And Iraqis want to see American troops to leave Iraq. So now agreement can be reached… There are still issues to be worked out, of course, but a United States that’s not driven by neo-imperial fantasies makes it much easier to resolve this.
UPDATE: Via Brandon Friedman: Desperate Army Reserve recruiters are already promising that Obama will get the U.S. out of Iraq and Afghanistan within two years, i.e. by 2010.
Previous One Utah posts:
Iraqi Bottom Line: All U.S. Troops Out! (October 31)
Iraq: End in Sight! (October 23)
Bush Sets Iraq ‘Surrender Date’: December 31, 2011 (October 15)
Bush Administration to Iraq: No Withdrawal Timetable for You! (October 7)
Iraq Withdrawal: Reading the Fine Print (August 11)
Iraq Withdrawal: They Were Against It Before They Were For It (July 30)
Bye-Bye Green Zone (July 14)
The Iraq Endgame Takes Shape (June 18)
November 7th, 2008 at 1:52 pm
I’ll admit I didn’t think long enough to see that one coming. But waiting for Obama to get here opens up a whole new vista for the Iraqis. And that is a good thing for them. I not only don’t blame them–I applaud them–for not trusting Bush or McCain.
I suspect, however, since Obama has never said much bad about our involvement in Afghanistan, that our troops all will get a transfer. And our overall foreign policy won’t change very much.
November 7th, 2008 at 2:00 pm
Thanks for commenting, Frank. I wondered why the Iraqis were reluctant to take the withdrawal deal, but apparently they have TV and Internet over there, and they must have heard McCain talking about his hundred-year plan.
As for Afghanistan, the goal from here on out ought to be to get the Taliban (or at least some significant elements of the Taliban) to the negotiating table. In the short term, that means sending some more forces in– if only to replace the NATO forces that are leaving or have already left (no doubt the media will insist on calling it a “surge”). Hopefully, Obama and his national security team will be smart enough to avoid a repeat of the Iraq fiasco in Afghanistan.
November 7th, 2008 at 4:02 pm
Good point about the TV and internet. I was absolutely “shocked” how many Iraqis had satellite dishes on their little adobe cottages when I was over there. They’re intelligent people, which didn’t comport well with what the Bush administration thought of them.
I will salute Obama if he deviates from the tired foreign policy of our last few decades–i.e. if he avoids a fiasco in Afghanistan and takes care of business and gets us back home. I worry that he’s been hinting about Pakistan a little bit, though.
November 7th, 2008 at 10:46 pm
Richard, this is a great post. I have had a sense that Obama would offer an opportunity for new diplomacy that could not have happened under Bush. It’s encouraging to see that our election of this new president already inspires trust and confidence.
November 8th, 2008 at 12:10 am
Emmanuel is the clue as to where of foreign policy is headed.
Frank, has anyone ever managed in history to avoid a fiasco in Afghanistan? I think the last person to make it through and win was Alexander the Great, and in the study of it, he suffered terrible losses, and it was in truth his undoing. In fact Baluchistan was where he died, though not in battle.
If Obama is smart, he will blow it off altogether. What with a possible 25% across the board cut in military expenditures, the die is cast. Going to be bombing a lot of weddings it would seem.
November 26th, 2008 at 4:27 pm
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