Climategate source code more damning than emails.


***update 12:33AM US MST (UTC-7)***

Here is an example of actual code from the CRU. Try explaining this away warmers…

;
; Apply a VERY ARTIFICAL correction for decline!!
;
yrloc=[1400,findgen(19)*5.+1904]
valadj=[0.,0.,0.,0.,0.,-0.1,-0.25,-0.3,0.,-0.1,0.3,0.8,1.2,1.7,2.5,2.6,2.6,$
2.6,2.6,2.6]*0.75 ; fudge factor
(…)
;
; APPLY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION
;
yearlyadj=interpol(valadj,yrloc,x)
densall=densall+yearlyadj

valadj is an array that if we plug in the numbers we get Michael Mann’s hockeystick. The programmers have hard coded a predetermined result.

Hockey Stick l

So now when they plug the actual numbers in no matter what they are it will always result in the hockeystick even if temperatures remained the same.

For example. Just for the sake of arguement lets say the average temperature remained constant at 70 degrees last century. When you run the numbers through their “fudge factor” you still get a hockey stick. Even a decline in temperatures would still result in a hockeystick. Way to hide the decline!

hockey stick

Just imagine if there really was global warming and they ran those numbers through the magic global warming program then we would really be frying.

From the HARRY_READ_ME.txt file which documents a programmers frustation with trying to make sense out of the sloppy code and bad databases the the CRU was using.

If this was not for the fact that the data produced by these programs were used by the IPCC and countless scientists to make their determinations it would be laughable, but these reports will effect every man woman and child on the planet if Cap’n Trade and other global warming treaties and laws are established.

Here, the expected 1990-2003 period is MISSING – so the correlations aren’t so hot! Yet
the WMO codes and station names /locations are identical (or close). What the hell is
supposed to happen here? Oh yeah – there is no ’supposed’, I can make it up. So I have :-)

You can’t imagine what this has cost me – to actually allow the operator to assign false
WMO codes!! But what else is there in such situations? Especially when dealing with a ‘Master’
database of dubious provenance (which, er, they all are and always will be).

False codes will be obtained by multiplying the legitimate code (5 digits) by 100, then adding
1 at a time until a number is found with no matches in the database. THIS IS NOT PERFECT but as
there is no central repository for WMO codes – especially made-up ones – we’ll have to chance
duplicating one that’s present in one of the other databases. In any case, anyone comparing WMO
codes between databases – something I’ve studiously avoided doing except for tmin/tmax where I
had to – will be treating the false codes with suspicion anyway. Hopefully.

Of course, option 3 cannot be offered for CLIMAT bulletins, there being no metadata with which
to form a new station.

This still meant an awful lot of encounters with naughty Master stations, when really I suspect
nobody else gives a hoot about. So with a somewhat cynical shrug, I added the nuclear option -
to match every WMO possible, and turn the rest into new stations (er, CLIMAT excepted). In other
words, what CRU usually do. It will allow bad databases to pass unnoticed, and good databases to
become bad, but I really don’t think people care enough to fix ‘em, and it’s the main reason the
project is nearly a year late.

It’s Sunday evening, I’ve worked all weekend, and just when I thought it was done I’m
hitting yet another problem that’s based on the hopeless state of our databases. There is no uniform
data integrity, it’s just a catalogue of issues that continues to grow as they’re found.

********

The emails are damning enough to global warming believers but the source code that was also leaked from the servers of the now disgraced Climate Research Unit (CRU) of the East Anglia University in England are far more damaging.

The source code for their once vaunted computer models was also leaked. This code was also subject to Britain’s Freedom of information act but as we now know in the emails the scientists went to great lengths to keep the documents hidden. After looking at the comments section of the code you can see why.

Programmers make comments in their code usually giving descriptions of the operation of a function. This makes it easier for other programmers to follow the code.

Here are the most damning excerpts of the source code comments that has been gleaned so far.

function mkp2correlation,indts,depts,remts,t,filter=filter,refperiod=refperiod,$
datathresh=datathresh
;
; THIS WORKS WITH REMTS BEING A 2D ARRAY (nseries,ntime) OF MULTIPLE TIMESERIES
; WHOSE INFLUENCE IS TO BE REMOVED
. UNFORTUNATELY THE IDL5.4 p_correlate
; FAILS WITH >1 SERIES TO HOLD CONSTANT, SO I HAVE TO REMOVE THEIR INFLUENCE
; FROM BOTH INDTS AND DEPTS USING MULTIPLE LINEAR REGRESSION AND THEN USE THE
; USUAL correlate FUNCTION ON THE RESIDUALS.
;

pro maps12,yrstart,doinfill=doinfill
;
; Plots 24 yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD reconstructions
; of growing season temperatures. Uses “corrected” MXD – but shouldn’t usually
; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures.

;

;
; Plots (1 at a time) yearly maps of calibrated (PCR-infilled or not) MXD
; reconstructions
; of growing season temperatures. Uses “corrected” MXD – but shouldn’t usually
; plot past 1960 because these will be artificially adjusted to look closer to
; the real temperatures.

From documents\harris-tree\recon_esper.pro:

; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass Esper et al. (2002) series,
; anomalies against full NH temperatures and other series.
; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1960 to avoid
; the decline

;

; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass MEAN timeseries of MXD
; anomalies against full NH temperatures.
; THIS IS FOR THE AGE-BANDED (ALL BANDS) STUFF OF HARRY’S
;
; Specify period over which to compute the regressions (stop in 1940 to avoid
; the decline

;

recon_mann.pro:
; Computes regressions on full, high and low pass MEAN timeseries of MXD
; anomalies against full NH temperatures.
; THIS IS FOR THE Mann et al. reconstruction
; CALIBRATES IT AGAINST THE LAND-ONLY TEMPERATURES NORTH OF 20 N
; IN FACT, I NOW HAVE AN ANNUAL LAND-ONLY NORTH OF 20N VERSION OF MANN,
; SO I CAN CALIBRATE THIS TOO – WHICH MEANS I’m ONLY ALTERING THE SEASON

briff_sep98_e.pro:
;
; PLOTS ‘ALL’ REGION MXD timeseries from age banded and from hugershoff
; standardised datasets.
; Reads Harry’s regional timeseries and outputs the 1600-1992 portion
; with missing values set appropriately. Uses mxd, and just the
; “all band” timeseries
;****** APPLIES A VERY ARTIFICIAL CORRECTION FOR DECLINE*********

Emphasis mine

For those who can’t follow what is being stated here is that data after 1960 will be “artificially adjusted” to “hide the decline”. In other words they were hardcoding in the program ways to manipulate the data to hide the decline in temperatures.

This is much bigger than the emails and cannot be explained away by “unfortunate wording” or done in a fit of frustration. This is a deliberate attempt to manufacture data to output a predetermined result. This also puts in clear context the meaning of the term “hide the decline” that is found in the emails.

It is now clear that all studies that have EVER used data from the CRU is tainted and must be thrown out. This would include the IPCC reports.

Copenhagen should be canceled because until we can get real unimpeachable data it would be the hieght of irresponsibility to enact binding laws that would cost us trillions and freedoms using tainted IPCC and CRU data.

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  1. #1 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 10:29

    Cav; Touche!

    It’s interesting that lack of evidence proves to you that Cheney and others are lying, but evidence so blatant… admitted to by the perpetrators doens’t prove anything at all to you.

    My guess is no matter how blatant the evidence, or how many times the CRU admits the emails are authentic, the pro Man Caused Global Climate Change side will simply do what that mottley CRU did… throw it out or change it because it doesn’t fit the paradigm.

    Instead, what we should be doing is letting the evidence lead us where it will, and let the political, social, monetary and scientific chips fall where they may.

    Somehow, I doubt people of science will ever allow that to happen.

  2. #2 by James Farmer - December 1st, 2009 at 10:38

    Don’t kid yourself Jim, it does bother you. My point in piling up the sources for all warming and the geologic record Jim, is that this is completely lacking in describing climate change from the sources that are obsessed with carbon being the driver of it. If you look foolish in the process, and that is mostly due to your own incomplete and personal comments, what I am showing that you don’t want to accept, that gives the illusion that you a partisan dummy despite any education… is merely incidental.

    Glenn:

    Speaking of “partisan dummies” we are all still waiting for you to explain one of your so-called sources. You provided a source a few days ago that calls into question the validity of the greenhouse efect in light of the 2nd law. I asked you then to explain that point to us in layman’s terms – certainly not beyond your ability given your background and insight in the subject. For whatever reason, you refused.

    Ok, so I am asking you once again. Explain it to us. If you are so impressed by the conclusions of the myriad links you provide, please take just that one assertion from that one source and explain it to us – i.e., explain why the greenhouse effect is inconsistent with the 2nd law.

    Seriously, glenn, if you want to be taken seriously, then explain this one assertion from this one source to us. After all, if you are providing these links/sources, you must have reviewed them yourself, correct? You would not just willy-nilly throw out links/sources that you yourself do not understand, would you?

    Hmmmm. Waiting, waiting, waiting……

  3. #3 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 10:40

    James, you are not only choosing to jump with a parachute you know could be packed irresponsibly, you are calling on our politicians to throw us all out of the airplane with what could be faulty parachutes.

    Up until these emails and this information at least. Now you are insisting we all jump with parachutes we know ARE faulty.

    This expose doesn’t call anything into question, it is revealling facts that the CRU cooked the books. They didn’t simply guess, or use “ad hoc”, they reversed numbers. They went on which hunts to destroy the reputations of scientists who disagreed with them.

    People of science who do accept Man Caused Global Climate Change should be the ones most up in arms here. They lied to you and you accepted it based on their reputations.

    Their reputation is junk now… but you don’t care.

    You can no longer EVER say with any kind of honesty that you follow the evidence where ever it leads.

    You aer knowingly willing to back lie, no matter what it destroys.

  4. #4 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 10:43

    now feel free to apply an artificial correction to what I said to make it into whatever you want it to mean.

  5. #5 by cav - December 1st, 2009 at 10:47

    Gloss and hypocracy.

  6. #6 by James Farmer - December 1st, 2009 at 10:51

    Ted:

    I will provide you the benefit of having joined this conversation mid stream. For the record, and I have stated it numerous times, I do NOT support the behaviors of the two scientists in question. Their behavior looks bad for all scientists – not just climate modelers. On the other hand, I will not allow the bad actions of these two bring down the entire scientific community and its extensive bodies of work.

    Having said that, I also refer you to previous comments to Ken re the state of the art of climate modeling and simulation techniques in general. I am providing you with insight to the workings of complicated codes based from experience – my own experience having worked in developing such codes for 20 or so years, including a stint at NASA as a senior research scientist. i am not force feeding you, just telling you like it is – take it or leave it, I really do not care.

    PS. For someone wanting to engage in discourse without personal attack, you have an interesting way of showing it.

  7. #7 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 10:52

    This situation actually gives us a simple and scientific way to test all the current information about Man Caused Global Climate Change.

    We now know that the CRU information is faulty, since they admitted the emails are authentic. While that does tell us the CRU information is corrupted, it doesn’t say all information about Man Caused Global Climate Change is.

    Simply match the CRU information against all other information on the same category. If the number is the same as the CRU had, then it can’t be right. You can’t get the correct number by switching numbers around as the CRU did.

    Unless you really don’t care what the facts are, or how much they have been corrupted to fit a paradigm… then just go along with those who think that destroying economies and societies is somehow “worth it”.

  8. #8 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 10:53

    oh, and by the way, if you aren’t already living the way you say we should all be living to “save the planet”, I have to question your integrity.

  9. #9 by Ken - December 1st, 2009 at 12:16

    James

    The big difference between the CRU emails and some alleged embarrassing LDS historical documents is that you rely completely on hearsay about any cover-up of LDS documents by the church but we have hard cold proof that the global warming scientists were cooking the books and colluding to hide their fraud.

  10. #10 by Shane Smith - December 1st, 2009 at 13:28

    Except there still isn’t anything that looks like cooking the books in the email, but hey, it wasn’t like we expected you to come out and admit you don’t think about your religion in any kind of critical manner…..

  11. #11 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 16:18

    I have to laugh about one thread here. While there are rumors and suspicions about some documents being hidden away by leaders of the LDS church, said documents have yet to see the light of day.

    On the other hand, the very documents Ken showed us here ARE in public view, yet many here (as well as around the world) expect us to just shrug our shoulders and allow the bogus information to be used as justification for stealing away our entire way of life.

  12. #12 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 16:19

    Shane, read this quote from the emails and tell me again that there “isn’t anything that looks llike cooking the books in the email”….

    From: gjjenkins@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
    To: p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, deparker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
    Subject: 1996 global temperatures
    Date: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 11:23 +0000 (GMT)
    Cc: llivingston@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, djcarson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx

    Phil

    Remember all the fun we had last year over 1995 global temperatures,
    with early release of information (via Oz), “inventing” the December
    monthly value, letters to Nature etc etc?

    I think we should have a cunning plan about what to do this year,
    simply to avoid a lot of wasted time.

    I have been discussing with David P and suggest the following:

    1. By 20 Dec we will have land and sea data up to Nov

    2. David (?) computes the December land anomaly based on 500hPa
    heights up to 20 Dec.

    3. We assume that Dec SST anomaly is the same as Nov

    4. We can therefore give a good estimate of 1996 global temps by 20
    Dec

    5. We feed this selectively to Nick Nuttall (who has had this in the
    past and seems now to expect special treatment) so that he can write
    an article for the silly season. We could also give this to Neville
    Nicholls??

    6. We explain that data is provisional and how the data has been
    created so early (ie the estimate for Dec) and also

    7. We explain why the globe is 0.23k (or whatever the final figure is)
    cooler than 95 (NAO reversal, slight La Nina). Also that global annual
    avg is only accuirate to a few hundredths of a degree (we said this
    last year – can we be more exact, eg PS/MS 0.05K or is this to big??)

    8. FROM NOW ON WE ANSWER NO MORE ENQUIRIES ABOUT 1996 GLOBAL TEMPS BUT
    EXPLAIN THAT IT WILL BE RELEASED IN JANUARY.

    9. We relesae the final estimate on 20 Jan, with a joint UEA/MetO
    press release. It may not evoke any interest by then.

    10. For questions after the release to Nuttall, (I late Dec, early
    Jan) we give the same answer as we gave him.

    Are you happy with this, or can you suggest something better (ie
    simpler)? I know it sound a bit cloak-and-dagger but its just meant to
    save time in the long run.

    Im copying this to DEP and CKF also for comments.

    Cheers

    Geoff

    http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?page=1&pp=25

  13. #13 by James Farmer - December 1st, 2009 at 16:47

    Ted:

    See Shane’s comment above. You do seem like a funny guy, at least to laugh at.

  14. #14 by Shrini - December 1st, 2009 at 16:51

    The leaked Files are available to download at http://wikileaks.org/wiki/Climatic_Research_Unit_emails,_data,_models,_1996-2009

    grep for the mistakes pointed out and they are indeed true –
    example file under FOIA/documents/harris_tree/calibrate_nhrecon.pro

    Once you get the data – unzip it and then you can run a search to verify that whatever has been posted is correct. I was convinced that this is clear manipulation of test results because the source code says that the code was modified to get results for A particular conference etc. This happens rampantly in academia where the researchers will botch results to make it look appear correct = per desired output so that their theory gets accepted.

    The sad part is that among thousands of reviewers how didnt any other peer or senior reviewer NOT have seen this data/output fixup??

    Looks like Man-Bear-Pig Gore wanted his Oscar errr Nobel desperately!

  15. #15 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 16:54

    James, it’s Shane’s comment I was replying too.

    He is sooo sure there are these secreted documents, but has none to show. Yet all of you have the actual Emails exposing the motley CRU and it means nothing to you at all.

    Your faith was justified before, but now you are simply followng the prophets of doom even after their own words have condemned them.

  16. #16 by Ken - December 1st, 2009 at 18:01

    First head rolls in Climategate. Phil Jones head of the CRU has announced he is stepping down. Even with this ABC, NBC, MSNBC, and CBS still are blacking out the entire story. They are all complicate in this fraud.

    The network owners stand to make billions over buying and selling carbon credits. They all have a conflict of interest.

    An other example of how corporations have sold out America. How does it feel liberals that your cause has been co-opted by the global warming industrial complex?

  17. #17 by James Farmer - December 1st, 2009 at 18:08

    Ted:

    My point, as is Shane’s, is you are misconstruing the the context of the e-mails. For example, I notice that rarely if ever has an entire email or, better yet, thread of emails been posted showing how the offending language might have been interpreted if read in context. All I am seeing is snippets that, when taken out of context, appear suspect. Ken repeats this error, as I have pointed out, when he copies snippets of code or comments without (a) understanding how programmers of such codes typically do their job and (b) how the snippets of code actually integrate with the bigger picture and affect the result.

    It is in light of Ken’s superficial analysis in this regard that I suggest he apply the same standard to various snippets of information leaked from church archives or, more recently, from the church’s dealing with prop 8. In fact, Kenn cannot apply the same standard to the church and walk away with the warm and fuzzies as he does with the climate modelers’ emails, comments and code snippets.

  18. #18 by James Farmer - December 1st, 2009 at 18:14

    An other example of how corporations have sold out America.

    Ken:

    Where does the Corporation of the Church of Jesus Christ of Latter-day Saints stand in the hierarchy of US corporations? Shall we discuss how the church’s investments might bring the corporation into the same line of criticism?

    As far as Phil Jones is concerned, he probably made the right decision in stepping down.

  19. #19 by Ken Bingham - December 1st, 2009 at 18:18

    East Anglia’s Vice-Chancellor Professor Edward Acton said he had “accepted Professor Jones’s offer to stand aside during this period. It is an important step to ensure that CRU can continue to operate normally and the independent review can conduct its work into the allegations.”

    They are going to “Operate normally” during the investigation? So in other words they are going to continue their fraud even though they have been exposed.

    James

    You need to look at the leaked material. It contains entire email threads. We are not taking anything out of context. We have the entire context laid before us.

    For example:

    From: gjjenkins@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
    To: p.jones@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, deparker@xxxxxxxxx.xxx
    Subject: 1996 global temperatures
    Date: Fri, 22 Nov 1996 11:23 +0000 (GMT)
    Cc: llivingston@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, djcarson@xxxxxxxxx.xxx, ckfolland@xxxxxxxxx.xxx… See More

    Phil

    Remember all the fun we had last year over 1995 global temperatures,
    with early release of information (via Oz), “inventing” the December
    monthly value, letters to Nature etc etc?

    I think we should have a cunning plan about what to do this year,
    simply to avoid a lot of wasted time.

    I have been discussing with David P and suggest the following:

    1. By 20 Dec we will have land and sea data up to Nov

    2. David (?) computes the December land anomaly based on 500hPa
    heights up to 20 Dec.

    3. We assume that Dec SST anomaly is the same as Nov

    4. We can therefore give a good estimate of 1996 global temps by 20
    Dec

    5. We feed this selectively to Nick Nuttall (who has had this in the
    past and seems now to expect special treatment) so that he can write
    an article for the silly season. We could also give this to Neville
    Nicholls??

    6. We explain that data is provisional and how the data has been
    created so early (ie the estimate for Dec) and also

    7. We explain why the globe is 0.23k (or whatever the final figure is)
    cooler than 95 (NAO reversal, slight La Nina). Also that global annual
    avg is only accuirate to a few hundredths of a degree (we said this
    last year – can we be more exact, eg PS/MS 0.05K or is this to big??)

    8. FROM NOW ON WE ANSWER NO MORE ENQUIRIES ABOUT 1996 GLOBAL TEMPS BUT
    EXPLAIN THAT IT WILL BE RELEASED IN JANUARY.

    9. We relesae the final estimate on 20 Jan, with a joint UEA/MetO
    press release. It may not evoke any interest by then.

    10. For questions after the release to Nuttall, (I late Dec, early
    Jan) we give the same answer as we gave him.

    Are you happy with this, or can you suggest something better (ie
    simpler)? I know it sound a bit cloak-and-dagger but its just meant to
    save time in the long run.

    Im copying this to DEP and CKF also for comments.

    Cheers

    Geoff

    Thank you Ted for posting this on FB.

  20. #20 by cav - December 1st, 2009 at 19:21

    Exactically what kinds of discussions occur in the run-up to any deadlined publication?

    The more I know about this issue, the more I begin to believe it’s just another example of the fearful distractions, put forth around death panels, and the robot-clone-Namibian Prince who’s made off with the peoples whitehouse.

    Rest assured tho, Sarah Palin will save us!

  21. #21 by James Farmer - December 1st, 2009 at 19:26

    ok, Ken, do explain what this email states or implies.

  22. #22 by Ted - December 1st, 2009 at 20:29

    James, whatever you have to tell yourself. The email I posted was the entire email from header to close.

    Face it, they were caught at it. Heads are rolling. The only people who refuse to even acknowledge this fraud are the people who have made it their religion.

    Never tell anyone that you follow the evidence where it leads. From your mouth it is a stone faced lie.

  23. #23 by James Farmer - December 1st, 2009 at 21:29

    Nice dodge, Ted. Maybe it’s best to just let Ken speak for himself. You do not seem to be doing him any favors.

  24. #24 by Shane Smith - December 1st, 2009 at 21:46

    I have to wonder along with James, what exactly do you think that email you quote says? You quote the entire email from header to close. Great.

    What. Does. It. Mean.

    What exactly do you see in that that proves that all global warming data is a lie? Please explain….

  25. #25 by Glenn “I am not smarter than a fifth grader” Hoefer - December 1st, 2009 at 22:19

    Hey, when is anyway going to do a top post about Bubble’s speech tonight? 911, blah, blah, blah. Terror, on and on. If he had changed his voice and put a bag over his head he could have been Guiliani.

    Remember these heady days?

    Quote: “I will promise you this, that if we have not gotten our troops out by the time I am president, it is the first thing I will do. I will get our troops home. We will bring an end to this war. You can take that to the bank. ” – Barack Obama Campaign Promise – October 27, 2007

    http://careandwashingofthebrain.blogspot.com/2009/12/obama-first-thing-i-will-do-as.html

  26. #26 by Glenn “I am not smarter than a fifth grader” Hoefer - December 1st, 2009 at 22:23

    Hey, Jones resigned today guys, the Louisville slugger is cracked and the horse is long dead.

    No justification, the guy claimed guilty, and went away. Stiff upper lip and all that you know. What are you guys doing?

  27. #27 by Glenn Hoefer - December 1st, 2009 at 22:39

    No matter what James, of course it preserves the second, the heat is contained in the atmosphere, and simply because it serves as insulation with all variety of gases does not inure it from the law, it simply modifies it. The heat will dissipate from the atmosphere more slowly.

    This has been the case all the while as the atmosphere evolved beginning on the planet’s formation. That we have had greenhouse gas effects in the past is known, and if they were permanent, i.e. not complying to the 2nd law, the climate would simply run away and life would cook off the planet.

    It did, it has not, and it will not. Ancient climes of the Carboniferous and the Cretaceous eras had much higher ambient temperatures and greenhouse gas concentrations yet all of these eras fell to cooling.

    The atmosphere, no matter it’s make up has insulative value, otherwise there would be no survivable average range in temperature for life to exist, like it has for eukaryotes for 1 billion years now.

    Maybe we are misunderstanding each other James, or I just do not know what you are referring to.

  28. #28 by James Farmer - December 1st, 2009 at 22:42

    Um, Glenn. I believe you were tasked with an assignment. You were going to explain to us why the greenhouse effect is inconsistent with the 2nd law. Time to put up or shut up.

  29. #29 by glenn - December 1st, 2009 at 22:53

    I don’t believe it is James, you are quoting something from a link I posted for interest sake I guess. Which one? Are you that far down that rabbit hole still?? Just because a link in made does not infer adherence to it. Some if it is there just to see what people do with it, though your reaction is something I am not prepared for, Bit of obsession

    The guy resigned, what more do you want? Nobody believes what you seem to, that it is all misunderstanding. I would like to see the reaction if this kind of crap were perpetrated by like say Bush, in the run up to the war.

     wavesoffear.com This is your blog right?

    Jones walks with his guilt, I have no idea what you are doing.

  30. #30 by glenn - December 1st, 2009 at 22:56

    BTW, my more complete reply is hung up in moderation, don’t know when it is coming out.

  31. #31 by glenn - December 1st, 2009 at 23:03

    Hey, glenn may not be smarter than a 5th grader, but he isn’t one thing the warmer believers are.

    Dupes.

    As you can see any integrity this site possesses is long gone, as if I would post under such a name. Posts manipulated again. Hey, when ya gots nuthin’ but the admin tools, what’cha gonna do?

  32. #32 by Cliff Lyon - December 1st, 2009 at 23:43

    Ive looked around. We are the only ones still talking about this hysterical canard. I suppose for some, its beats the heck out of discussing the SCIENTIFIC FACTS.

    Once again you people are embarrassing Utah.

  33. #33 by Shane Smith - December 2nd, 2009 at 07:50

    Hey glenn simple solution to your bitching about your claimed post edits. Take up cliffs offer and top post yourself.

    Also wouldn’t hurt if you didn’t post under a new name every 5 minutes and if you actually had something to say rather than just bitching….

  34. #34 by Cliff Lyon - December 2nd, 2009 at 08:54

    Ted,

    You and your brother Ken keep saying the the conspiracy will require major changes in society.

    What exactly do you think will happen?

    Consider for a moment that the average Californian consumes 40% less energy than the rest of the country.

  35. #35 by Glenn Hoefer - December 2nd, 2009 at 09:19

    Consider Cliff that it is warm and sunny in California, rather temperate, and there is a semblance of a public transit system. The better part of the US population lives in the East where it freezes and swelters at either end of the year. More amusing the more it talks.

    Cliff this topic is absolutely the hottest topic(no pun intended) in Europe, where this scientific brainwashing fraud was most firmly set in the world. We here are simply ahead of the curve in America in acknowledging the bombshell. The US MSM runs a few weeks behind the rest of the world in realizing that it’s lies cannot be told successfully to the US population. This has only begun here in the US to take off. I have already directed over 100 people to the e-mails, and the most common response is anger and that such a fraud was expected. Give it about 2-3 weeks.

    Shane I don’t live in Utah and have never been offered the opportunity to top post. I would have to be given the tools to do it, passwords etc, and I pretty sure Cliff doesn’t want me editing what he writes and manipulating his posts, even though I would never do that. That is something he does, and of course fears should it ever be done to him.

  36. #36 by Glenn Hoefer - December 2nd, 2009 at 09:31

    Life is now not cooked off, has not cooked off, and will not cook off from a runaway greenhouse effect on Earth. Due to previous greenhouse affects though, some species may have gone extinct. Since we were not the cause of those particular warmings, as we had not yet appeared in the record of life on earth at these times, their extinctions can only be described as “natural”.

    Question: Are we natural? Did we evolve here? If so how is what we do concerning planetary climate change “bad” if we are the natural evolution of life on this planet? Man’s efforts as good or bad are simply subjective to a creature that has limited apparent ability to mitigate his behavior, or even admit his limitations.

    Pardon, I have to hit the head and release some sulfur and methane. Everyday if you want to live!

  37. #37 by James Farmer - December 2nd, 2009 at 10:21

    Glenn:

    See, this is one of the problems with your tendency to just post crap – even you cannot keep track of all the BS you post. At any rate, below is a copy of your previous comment and link:

    http://www.schmanck.de/0707.1161v4.pdf

    Tells why the greenhouse effect theory is bunk using basic physics principles. There is no way to promote this crap theory anymore. It is over.

    Now, my question to you, as has been the case ever since you posted this comment, is will you please explain for us laypersons precisely why the greenhouse effect is inconsistent with the 2nd law – which is a major premise of your source (yes, I actually read it).

    On the other hand, I’d be equally satisfied to read the more honest answer from you, something along the lines of: “hey, I don’t understand any of this crap, it just looks technical and complicated so I post it.”

  38. #38 by Glenn Hoefer - December 2nd, 2009 at 10:56

    What portion of the pdf are you referring to Jim? I did not read it all, it just looked interesting. Glad you found it so enough to read it.

    As it is I posted it, doesn’t mean I agree with it. As controversial as the mans premise is, it did draw out the expected responses.

    The greenhouse theory is bunk in relation to the concept that it is possible for it to runaway and destroy life on Earth. It could make life difficult, even wipe out myriads of species, but our kind of life has been here for 1 billion years, so any speculation of what the greenhouse effect is going to do should be measured by what has been, and with greenhouse gas concentrations far higher than today.

  39. #39 by James Farmer - December 2nd, 2009 at 11:06

    glenn:

    How can you agree or disagree with something you cannot even understand? But thanks for the honest assessment – you just dig your own hole deeper and deeper everytime you comment.

    Your kids will be proud of you someday – “yup, that’s my daddy, a real, bonafide, idiot!”

  40. #40 by Ted - December 2nd, 2009 at 12:49

    Cliff Lyon :Ted,
    You and your brother Ken keep saying the the conspiracy will require major changes in society.
    What exactly do you think will happen?
    Consider for a moment that the average Californian consumes 40% less energy than the rest of the country.

    International scams like the Kyoto Protocol and the upcoming meeting in Copenhagen answer that question pretty well.

    I guess you welcome some international bureacracy dictating a lifestyle to you, right?

    I guess as long as you worship at the alter of global climate change, you’re willing to accept anything from the gurus.

  41. #41 by Todd Clarke - December 2nd, 2009 at 14:15

    Look at what this email says just before the Kyoto protocol meeting –
    http://www.eastangliaemails.com/emails.php?eid=35&filename=876437553.txt

    Look at this paragraph
    ‘The media is going to say “1000 scientists signed” or “1500
    signed”. No one is going to check if it is 600 with PhDs versus 2000
    without. They will mention the prominent ones, but that is a
    different story. ‘

    It clearly says that the “scientists” blindly collected signatures of people to their research for the sake of endorsing or for entitlement of funding – which again looks unethical.

    Something indeed has never seemed right in the way Climate research is being done. Govt. funded scientists can have a last word in a plan that gives “world government” full control. Why dont we have a consortium of industries set up a parallel research lab and come up with independent results? Wait a minute that cant be done – the moment that is done the hippies will yell that big business bought the integrity of scientists. Well what about greed for funding compromising the govt. Scientists. Also the data sets are owned by Government authorities.

    Sad indeed

  42. #42 by Shane Smith - December 2nd, 2009 at 20:14

    So Todd, i trust that when Inhoff got his list of 400 “scientists” many of whom had no scientific training at all, many more who wee retired, and several of whom had no degree at all but where simply TV weather personalities, you were equally disgusted and decided that global warming deniers are sad and compromised?

    There is also the simple and sad fact that he is right. It may not be something we want to admit, but the statement is in fact accurate. The media won’t check the names, and won’t chech the facts. That is why the BS that you have all swallowed is reported. They manufacture a non-existant disagreement about the science, much as they have over evolution and many other controversial science topics. Is it sad that he is right? Yes, it is. But when expected to play some retarded numbers game against liars like Inhoff, and given a press that thinks that airing the discredited opinion of some fringe idiot is equal time, that is the reality he is facing.

    Still waiting for someone to show me the huge fraud though. Unless that was supposed to be it? OMG, was that it? This really is sad…

  43. #43 by brewski - December 2nd, 2009 at 20:30

    Shane, does this guy count as a real scientist?

    By RICHARD S. LINDZEN

    Is there a reason to be alarmed by the prospect of global warming? Consider that the measurement used, the globally averaged temperature anomaly (GATA), is always changing. Sometimes it goes up, sometimes down, and occasionally—such as for the last dozen years or so—it does little that can be discerned.

    Claims that climate change is accelerating are bizarre. There is general support for the assertion that GATA has increased about 1.5 degrees Fahrenheit since the middle of the 19th century. The quality of the data is poor, though, and because the changes are small, it is easy to nudge such data a few tenths of a degree in any direction. Several of the emails from the University of East Anglia’s Climate Research Unit (CRU) that have caused such a public ruckus dealt with how to do this so as to maximize apparent changes.

    The general support for warming is based not so much on the quality of the data, but rather on the fact that there was a little ice age from about the 15th to the 19th century. Thus it is not surprising that temperatures should increase as we emerged from this episode. At the same time that we were emerging from the little ice age, the industrial era began, and this was accompanied by increasing emissions of greenhouse gases such as CO2, methane and nitrous oxide. CO2 is the most prominent of these, and it is again generally accepted that it has increased by about 30%.

    View Full Image
    Getty Images .
    The defining characteristic of a greenhouse gas is that it is relatively transparent to visible light from the sun but can absorb portions of thermal radiation. In general, the earth balances the incoming solar radiation by emitting thermal radiation, and the presence of greenhouse substances inhibits cooling by thermal radiation and leads to some warming.

    That said, the main greenhouse substances in the earth’s atmosphere are water vapor and high clouds. Let’s refer to these as major greenhouse substances to distinguish them from the anthropogenic minor substances. Even a doubling of CO2 would only upset the original balance between incoming and outgoing radiation by about 2%. This is essentially what is called “climate forcing.”

    There is general agreement on the above findings. At this point there is no basis for alarm regardless of whether any relation between the observed warming and the observed increase in minor greenhouse gases can be established. Nevertheless, the most publicized claims of the U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) deal exactly with whether any relation can be discerned. The failure of the attempts to link the two over the past 20 years bespeaks the weakness of any case for concern.

    The IPCC’s Scientific Assessments generally consist of about 1,000 pages of text. The Summary for Policymakers is 20 pages. It is, of course, impossible to accurately summarize the 1,000-page assessment in just 20 pages; at the very least, nuances and caveats have to be omitted. However, it has been my experience that even the summary is hardly ever looked at. Rather, the whole report tends to be characterized by a single iconic claim.

    The main statement publicized after the last IPCC Scientific Assessment two years ago was that it was likely that most of the warming since 1957 (a point of anomalous cold) was due to man. This claim was based on the weak argument that the current models used by the IPCC couldn’t reproduce the warming from about 1978 to 1998 without some forcing, and that the only forcing that they could think of was man. Even this argument assumes that these models adequately deal with natural internal variability—that is, such naturally occurring cycles as El Nino, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation, the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, etc.

    Yet articles from major modeling centers acknowledged that the failure of these models to anticipate the absence of warming for the past dozen years was due to the failure of these models to account for this natural internal variability. Thus even the basis for the weak IPCC argument for anthropogenic climate change was shown to be false.

    The Climate Emails The Economics of Climate Change
    Rigging a Climate ‘Consensus’
    Global Warming With the Lid Off
    Climate Science and Candor
    .
    Of course, none of the articles stressed this. Rather they emphasized that according to models modified to account for the natural internal variability, warming would resume—in 2009, 2013 and 2030, respectively.

    But even if the IPCC’s iconic statement were correct, it still would not be cause for alarm. After all we are still talking about tenths of a degree for over 75% of the climate forcing associated with a doubling of CO2. The potential (and only the potential) for alarm enters with the issue of climate sensitivity—which refers to the change that a doubling of CO2 will produce in GATA. It is generally accepted that a doubling of CO2 will only produce a change of about two degrees Fahrenheit if all else is held constant. This is unlikely to be much to worry about.

    Yet current climate models predict much higher sensitivities. They do so because in these models, the main greenhouse substances (water vapor and clouds) act to amplify anything that CO2 does. This is referred to as positive feedback. But as the IPCC notes, clouds continue to be a source of major uncertainty in current models. Since clouds and water vapor are intimately related, the IPCC claim that they are more confident about water vapor is quite implausible.

    There is some evidence of a positive feedback effect for water vapor in cloud-free regions, but a major part of any water-vapor feedback would have to acknowledge that cloud-free areas are always changing, and this remains an unknown. At this point, few scientists would argue that the science is settled. In particular, the question remains as to whether water vapor and clouds have positive or negative feedbacks.

    The notion that the earth’s climate is dominated by positive feedbacks is intuitively implausible, and the history of the earth’s climate offers some guidance on this matter. About 2.5 billion years ago, the sun was 20%-30% less bright than now (compare this with the 2% perturbation that a doubling of CO2 would produce), and yet the evidence is that the oceans were unfrozen at the time, and that temperatures might not have been very different from today’s. Carl Sagan in the 1970s referred to this as the “Early Faint Sun Paradox.”

    For more than 30 years there have been attempts to resolve the paradox with greenhouse gases. Some have suggested CO2—but the amount needed was thousands of times greater than present levels and incompatible with geological evidence. Methane also proved unlikely. It turns out that increased thin cirrus cloud coverage in the tropics readily resolves the paradox—but only if the clouds constitute a negative feedback. In present terms this means that they would diminish rather than enhance the impact of CO2.

    There are quite a few papers in the literature that also point to the absence of positive feedbacks. The implied low sensitivity is entirely compatible with the small warming that has been observed. So how do models with high sensitivity manage to simulate the currently small response to a forcing that is almost as large as a doubling of CO2? Jeff Kiehl notes in a 2007 article from the National Center for Atmospheric Research, the models use another quantity that the IPCC lists as poorly known (namely aerosols) to arbitrarily cancel as much greenhouse warming as needed to match the data, with each model choosing a different degree of cancellation according to the sensitivity of that model.

    What does all this have to do with climate catastrophe? The answer brings us to a scandal that is, in my opinion, considerably greater than that implied in the hacked emails from the Climate Research Unit (though perhaps not as bad as their destruction of raw data): namely the suggestion that the very existence of warming or of the greenhouse effect is tantamount to catastrophe. This is the grossest of “bait and switch” scams. It is only such a scam that lends importance to the machinations in the emails designed to nudge temperatures a few tenths of a degree.

    The notion that complex climate “catastrophes” are simply a matter of the response of a single number, GATA, to a single forcing, CO2 (or solar forcing for that matter), represents a gigantic step backward in the science of climate. Many disasters associated with warming are simply normal occurrences whose existence is falsely claimed to be evidence of warming. And all these examples involve phenomena that are dependent on the confluence of many factors.

    Our perceptions of nature are similarly dragged back centuries so that the normal occasional occurrences of open water in summer over the North Pole, droughts, floods, hurricanes, sea-level variations, etc. are all taken as omens, portending doom due to our sinful ways (as epitomized by our carbon footprint). All of these phenomena depend on the confluence of multiple factors as well.

    Consider the following example. Suppose that I leave a box on the floor, and my wife trips on it, falling against my son, who is carrying a carton of eggs, which then fall and break. Our present approach to emissions would be analogous to deciding that the best way to prevent the breakage of eggs would be to outlaw leaving boxes on the floor. The chief difference is that in the case of atmospheric CO2 and climate catastrophe, the chain of inference is longer and less plausible than in my example.

    Mr. Lindzen is professor of meteorology at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Lindzen is a recipient of the American Meteorological Society’s Meisinger and Charney Awards, American Geophysical Union’s Macelwane Medal, and the Leo Prize from the Wallin Foundation in Goteborg, Sweden. He is a member of the National Academy of Sciences (NAS), and the Norwegian Academy of Sciences and Letters, and was named Fellow of the American Academy of Arts and Sciences, the American Association for the Advancement of Sciences, the American Geophysical Union, and the American Meteorological Society. He is a corresponding member of the NAS Committee on Human Rights, and a member of the United States National Research Council Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate. He was a consultant to the Global Modeling and Simulation Group at NASA’s Goddard Space Flight Center, and a Distinguished Visiting Scientist at California Institute of Technology’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory.

  44. #44 by Frank Staheli - December 2nd, 2009 at 20:33

    Let me answer the question before they do. It will go, conveniently, something like this: “Mr. Lindzen is not a real scientist because real scientists believe that man is causing significant global warming.”

    ;-)

  45. #45 by James Farmer - December 2nd, 2009 at 21:24

    brew:

    Sure, his qualifications are certainly commensurate with a real scientist. So, what’s your point?

  46. #46 by Frank Staheli - December 2nd, 2009 at 21:39

    …his preferred answer having already been taken, Mr. Farmer chose the only alternative–the sniff of disinterest and disdain…

    ;-)

  47. #47 by James Farmer - December 2nd, 2009 at 21:51

    … the unexpected answer in the affirmative leaves Mr. Staheli, yet again, without a cogent or otherwise substantive response, forcing Mr. Staheli yet closer to the realization that he is the blogger equivalent of Glenn Hoefer!

    Congratulations, Frank! :)

  48. #48 by michael mielke - December 2nd, 2009 at 23:36

    What you blind deniers are doing is taking some tiny pieces of comment from a few of the overwhelming number of scientists who have complete consensus on our destroying the living systems we depend upon and turning it into a big deal when no deal exists. The evidence is overwhelming. You just don’t want to see the truth. You can’t handle the truth. Step back and pull yourself out of the sand or out of your own viscera. If you can understand the word.

  49. #49 by michael mielke - December 2nd, 2009 at 23:40

    Common blind mice. If you are willing to comment on data, not hysteria like Glenn Beck. Or are you so ridiculous as to believe that we give up our sovereignty. It amazes me how the few, like you ridiculous blind deniers seem unable and unwilling to look at their burning house and refusew to call the fire department. Are you related to Roy Spencer? Do you push creationism in the place of evolution too?

  50. #50 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 00:05

    It’s taken a while for any indignation to arise over the compromising of confidential correspondence. That deserves looking into. Not to mention the motivations of those who have released these emails.

    But it also ignores the somewhat surprising uproar over the purported contents of the emails. It seems that a shocking fig leaf has been waived, and the misunderstood words, and the desire to have one’s data presented in as positive fashion as possible, and the desire to try to reconcile different data sets, has encouraged scientific illiterates to declare that global warming does not exist. We should be so lucky.

  51. #51 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 00:12

    And of course it should also be noted that universities world-wide are just running rampant with … dare I say it?

    LIBERALS!!!!!

  52. #52 by James Farmer - December 3rd, 2009 at 00:29

    Mike:

    Welcome to the freak show. Ken, Glenn H. and Co. have lowered the bar to a point where it merely lies on the ground. They embody the very definition of the proverbial “race to the bottom!”

  53. #53 by Ken - December 3rd, 2009 at 05:44

    Another major shoe is about to drop on Climategate. NASA has been stonewalling its release of documents requested under the Freedom of Information Act. They are currently being sued to release documents and fighting tooth and nail to stop any release. Now they are going to have to under growing pressure because of the CRU.

    NASA has continually had to adjust their numbers and have had a number of embarrassing high profile errors they have had to admit to. James Hansen may very well become the next Phil Jones. I am sure they will be very happy sharing a Cell together, Maybe with Algore it will be a threesome.

  54. #54 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 07:29

    Published on Thursday, December 3, 2009 by The Guardian/UK
    Copenhagen Climate Change Talks Must Fail, says Top Scientist
    Exclusive: World’s leading climate change expert says summit talks so flawed that deal would be a disaster
    by Suzanne Goldenberg

    ….
    Hansen, in repeated appearances before Congress beginning in 1989, has done more than any other scientist to educate politicians about the causes of global warming and to prod them into action to avoid its most catastrophic consequences. But he is vehemently opposed to the carbon market schemes – in which permits to pollute are bought and sold – which are seen by the EU and other governments as the most efficient way to cut emissions and move to a new clean energy economy.

    Hansen is also fiercely critical of Barack Obama – and even Al Gore, who won a Nobel peace prize for his efforts to get the world to act on climate change – saying politicians have failed to meet what he regards as the moral challenge of our age.

    In Hansen’s view, dealing with climate change allows no room for the compromises that rule the world of elected politics. “This is analagous to the issue of slavery faced by Abraham Lincoln or the issue of Nazism faced by Winston Churchill,” he said. “On those kind of issues you cannot compromise. You can’t say let’s reduce slavery, let’s find a compromise and reduce it 50% or reduce it 40%.”

    He added: “We don’t have a leader who is able to grasp it and say what is really needed. Instead we are trying to continue business as usual.”

    http://www.commondreams.org/headline/2009/12/03-0

  55. #55 by Ken Bingham - December 3rd, 2009 at 07:43

    James Hansen is against Copenhagen, and Algore because they do not go far enough in his extremist eyes. He does have a good point about the corporatization of global warming that Cap’n trade and Algore represent but only because he wants even more extreme measures.

  56. #56 by Cliff Lyon - December 3rd, 2009 at 08:23

    The CO2 problem in 6 easy steps— gavin @ 6 August 2007

    We often get requests to provide an easy-to-understand explanation for why increasing CO2 is a significant problem without relying on climate models and we are generally happy to oblige. The explanation has a number of separate steps which tend to sometimes get confused and so we will try to break it down carefully.

    Step 1: There is a natural greenhouse effect.

    The fact that there is a natural greenhouse effect (that the atmosphere restricts the passage of long wave (LW) radiation from the Earth’s surface to space) is easily deducible from i) the mean temperature of the surface (around 15ºC) and ii) knowing that the planet is roughly in radiative equilibrium. This means that there is an upward surface flux of LW around [tex]\sigma T^4[/tex] (~390 W/m2), while the outward flux at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) is roughly equivalent to the net solar radiation coming in (1-a)S/4 (~240 W/m2). Thus there is a large amount of LW absorbed by the atmosphere (around 150 W/m2) – a number that would be zero in the absence of any greenhouse substances.

    Step 2: Trace gases contribute to the natural greenhouse effect.

    The fact that different absorbers contribute to the net LW absorption is clear from IR spectra taken from space which show characteristic gaps associated with water vapour, CO2, CH4, O3 etc (Harries et al, 2001; HITRAN). The only question is how much energy is blocked by each. This cannot be calculated by hand (the number of absorption lines and the effects of pressure broadening etc. preclude that), but it can be calculated using line-by-line radiative transfer codes. The earliest calculations (reviewed by Ramanathan and Coakley, 1979) give very similar results to more modern calculations (Clough and Iacono, 1995), and demonstrate that removing the effect of CO2 reduces the net LW absorbed by ~14%, or around 30 W/m2. For some parts of the spectrum, IR can be either absorbed by CO2 or by water vapour, and so simply removing the CO2 gives only a minimum effect. Thus CO2 on its own would cause an even larger absorption. In either case however, the trace gases are a significant part of what gets absorbed.

    Step 3: The trace greenhouse gases have increased markedly due to human emissions

    CO2 is up more than 30%, CH4 has more than doubled, N2O is up 15%, tropospheric O3 has also increased. New compounds such as halocarbons (CFCs, HFCs) did not exist in the pre-industrial atmosphere. All of these increases contribute to an enhanced greenhouse effect.

    Step 4: Radiative forcing is a useful diagnostic and can easily be calculated

    Lessons from simple toy models and experience with more sophisticated GCMs suggests that any perturbation to the TOA radiation budget from whatever source is a pretty good predictor of eventual surface temperature change. Thus if the sun were to become stronger by about 2%, the TOA radiation balance would change by 0.02*1366*0.7/4 = 4.8 W/m2 (taking albedo and geometry into account) and this would be the radiative forcing (RF). An increase in greenhouse absorbers or a change in the albedo have analogous impacts on the TOA balance. However, calculation of the radiative forcing is again a job for the line-by-line codes that take into account atmospheric profiles of temperature, water vapour and aerosols. The most up-to-date calculations for the trace gases are by Myhre et al (1998) and those are the ones used in IPCC TAR and AR4.

    These calculations can be condensed into simplified fits to the data, such as the oft-used formula for CO2: RF = 5.35 ln(CO2/CO2_orig) (see Table 6.2 in IPCC TAR for the others). The logarithmic form comes from the fact that some particular lines are already saturated and that the increase in forcing depends on the ‘wings’ (see this post for more details). Forcings for lower concentration gases (such as CFCs) are linear in concentration. The calculations in Myhre et al use representative profiles for different latitudes, but different assumptions about clouds, their properties and the spatial heterogeneity mean that the global mean forcing is uncertain by about 10%. Thus the RF for a doubling of CO2 is likely 3.7±0.4 W/m2 – the same order of magnitude as an increase of solar forcing by 2%.

    There are a couple of small twists on the radiative forcing concept. One is that CO2 has an important role in the stratospheric radiation balance. The stratosphere reacts very quickly to changes in that balance and that changes the TOA forcing by a small but non-negligible amount. The surface response, which is much slower, therefore reacts more proportionately to the ‘adjusted’ forcing and this is generally what is used in lieu of the instantaneous forcing. The other wrinkle is depending slightly on the spatial distribution of forcing agents, different feedbacks and processes might come into play and thus an equivalent forcing from two different sources might not give the same response. The factor that quantifies this effect is called the ‘efficacy’ of the forcing, which for the most part is reasonably close to one, and so doesn’t change the zeroth-order picture (Hansen et al, 2005). This means that climate forcings can be simply added to approximate the net effect.

    The total forcing from the trace greenhouse gases mentioned in Step 3, is currently about 2.5 W/m2, and the net forcing (including cooling impacts of aerosols and natural changes) is 1.6±1.0 W/m2 since the pre-industrial. Most of the uncertainty is related to aerosol effects. Current growth in forcings is dominated by increasing CO2, with potentially a small role for decreases in reflective aerosols (sulphates, particularly in the US and EU) and increases in absorbing aerosols (like soot, particularly from India and China and from biomass burning).

    Step 5: Climate sensitivity is around 3ºC for a doubling of CO2

    The climate sensitivity classically defined is the response of global mean temperature to a forcing once all the ‘fast feedbacks’ have occurred (atmospheric temperatures, clouds, water vapour, winds, snow, sea ice etc.), but before any of the ’slow’ feedbacks have kicked in (ice sheets, vegetation, carbon cycle etc.). Given that it doesn’t matter much which forcing is changing, sensitivity can be assessed from any particular period in the past where the changes in forcing are known and the corresponding equilibrium temperature change can be estimated. As we have discussed previously, the last glacial period is a good example of a large forcing (~7 W/m2 from ice sheets, greenhouse gases, dust and vegetation) giving a large temperature response (~5 ºC) and implying a sensitivity of about 3ºC (with substantial error bars). More formally, you can combine this estimate with others taken from the 20th century, the response to volcanoes, the last millennium, remote sensing etc. to get pretty good constraints on what the number should be. This was done by Annan and Hargreaves (2006), and they come up with, you guessed it, 3ºC.

    Converting the estimate for doubled CO2 to a more useful factor gives ~0.75 ºC/(W/m2).

    Step 6: Radiative forcing x climate sensitivity is a significant number

    Current forcings (1.6 W/m2) x 0.75 ºC/(W/m2) imply 1.2 ºC that would occur at equilibrium. Because the oceans take time to warm up, we are not yet there (so far we have experienced 0.7ºC), and so the remaining 0.5 ºC is ‘in the pipeline’. We can estimate this independently using the changes in ocean heat content over the last decade or so (roughly equal to the current radiative imbalance) of ~0.7 W/m2, implying that this ‘unrealised’ forcing will lead to another 0.7×0.75 ºC – i.e. 0.5 ºC.

    Additional forcings in business-as-usual scenarios range roughly from 3 to 7 W/m2 and therefore additional warming (at equilibrium) would be 2 to 5 ºC. That is significant.

  57. #57 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 09:29

    Ken, Just a small tip from someone who is not altogeter sold on the unbridgeability of the conservative / liberal divide:

    Your shrillness demeans you. Tone it down or lose readers.

    Mkay?

  58. #58 by James Farmer - December 3rd, 2009 at 09:44

    Good point, cav. I was actually just starting to enjoy dialogue with ken, but his shrill Hoefer or Palin or tea-bagger approach of shouting loudly with little or no substance or analysis – even if incorrect - is tiresome.

  59. #59 by Todd Clarke - December 3rd, 2009 at 09:56

    Now I think that Democrats/Liberals and Republicans/conservatives have done a secret deal since the 80s so that each enjoy power equally every 8-10 years alternately and push their respective agendas pulling wool over people’s eyes. The next 8 years it will be Cap n Trade and Govt Health, then some Rep will win in 2013 or 2017 to start a new thing … huh

    I call it Sinusoidal democracy rather than a banana republic.

  60. #60 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 10:22

    The shortcomings of Sinusoidal democracy ought to be verified and used as ammo against it.

    That they have all the money and all the power will present some obstacles, I suppose, but what are we to do otherwise?

  61. #61 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 10:28

    James, ESPECIALLY WHEN INCORRECT!

    It’s like the discussion of whether Gods underwear choices have an impact on the overall economy.

    Well, Duh?

  62. #62 by James Farmer - December 3rd, 2009 at 10:35

    cav:

    I stand corrected. “ESPECIALLY WHEN INCORRECT” would have been the proper statement!

  63. #63 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 10:52

    James, I should add: The issue of ‘eye-patch’ v boxers is very troubling to the eye-patch promoters. The controversy is only going to hurt the former as we shop for the holidays.

    Underwear, whatever the choice, should be dropped alltogether.

  64. #64 by Glenn Hoefer - December 3rd, 2009 at 10:59

    Any comment on this James? Who is shrill but you James? Ken is just laying out what is in every major European newspaper, and will soon be in every paper here. When that all happens, you can only imagine what your current stance will look like.

    Can’t lower the bar on scientific endeavor any lower than committing scientific fraud, breaking freedom of information request laws, and willfully colluding in that effort with others charged to do the research. Limbo lower man James!! I know you worked for NASA, are we to assume that by casting the attention anywhere but on the defrauders you may be trying to protect your own ass, and that of associates? Just wondering. Check the link. It is over for you guys, don’t you get it yet?

    People in Hollywood are talking about taking Al Gore’s Oscar away, as the movie was presented as true, and in England has been defined as full of errors, and well in that case we see now purposefully, so the fraud is exposed for all to see. Except of course those imbued with the global warming faith.

    This involves NASA. We have similar laws concerning the prosecution of people who interfere with data after a FOI request, like England.

    http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2009/12/03/researcher-reportedly-threatens-sue-nasa-climate-data/

    I’ll let you stew in that for a while warmers. This is only then beginning. What with the escalation in Afghanistan which I predicted before this clown was elected, this plan to wreck the country is going nowhere fast. 2010 then 2012 is the solution.

  65. #65 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:00

    While I jest, there is this:

    An open letter from one of the major climate scientists on the hacked email disinformation campaign:
    http://groups.google.com/group/ g…QREsaQLr7Cfz2Ps

    In case you can’t load it, here’s the take home message:
    Yesterday was a very sad day for climate science. When the forces of unreason win, and force exceptional scientists like Professor Phil
    Jones to leave their positions, we all lose. Climate science loses. Our community loses. The world loses.
    Now, more than at any other time in human history, we need sound scientific information on the nature and causes of climate change. Phil Jones and his colleagues at CRU have helped to provide such information. I hope that all
    of you will join me in thanking Phil for everything he has done – and will do in the future – for our scientific community. He and his CRU colleagues deserve great credit.

  66. #66 by James Farmer - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:08

    glenn hoefer says:

    … committing scientific fraud …

    Well, for the 100th or so time, either make your case or shut the hell up. So far, you’ve done neither.

  67. #67 by Glenn Hoefer - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:11

    “When the forces of unreason win”,

    Nothing reasonable about breaking the law, which is what Jones did in changing data, and denying FOI requests.

    I know that you are being sarcastic Cav. The letter sounds like a criminal speaking for himself before the sentencing for the crime he committed. The jury took a half hour to turn in a verdict.

  68. #68 by Glenn Hoefer - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:15

    I don’t have to make the case, or provide you with a scintilla of a chance to worm out of the truth. We will let the resignations, and the coming charges speak for themselves James.

    You make the case that the codes are not for tainting data, or that the e-mails are just jocularity, and Jones resigned because he wanted to spend more time with his family. You are toast James, and I have absolutely nothing to do with it, nor is there any need to entertain your denial hysteria.

  69. #69 by James Farmer - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:21

    If anyone desires an example of the proverbial “nothingburger”, well here it is below, straight from our very own Glenn Hoefer:

    I don’t have to make the case, or provide you with a scintilla of a chance to worm out of the truth. We will let the resignations, and the coming charges speak for themselves James.

    You make the case that the codes are not for tainting data, or that the e-mails are just jocularity, and Jones resigned because he wanted to spend more time with his family. You are toast James, and I have absolutely nothing to do with it, nor is there any need to entertain your denial hysteria.

    Broken to its elements, Glenn states that he need only make unsupported allegations of fraud. And if anyone disagrees with his allegations, then they are free to prove the negative. No substance, all flare and glare.

    Thankfully, in the US, folks are generqally presumed innocent until proven guilty. In Glenn’s world, however, ….

  70. #70 by Glenn Hoefer - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:26

    …and finally James, do you have any idea how stupid you look in attacking Ken via his church in the context of this scientific fraud?

    We are simply laying out a blockbusting news story about the conduct of scientists that were to provide data that the survival of the human race could hinge upon, and you prefer to make nothing of it.

    Nothing less than a complete review of all data, and the postulates derived from them will suffice now. The world may be warming, but we are not relying on the like of Jones, and supporters of his fraudulent data to figure out now what may be happening.

    We are very likely not going to do something because time is of the essence. If it was so important to know the truth, why would the sources to find it be handled in a criminal manner.

    You are emotionally invested in climate change James, and that without the proof, is something skin to any religion. Nice to see you showing your faith.

  71. #71 by Glenn Hoefer - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:37

    James, no matter how you word it, I am out of this conversation now, and will let you pile up the absurdity as this fraud and it’s investigation moves forward. See you on the other side.

    For me the issue stopped at the denial of the FOI requests. The rest has been nothing but sending you down a rabbit hole, which you have done admirably.

    For the record, the cooking of data, and being caught at it, is the real nothingburger. It would have allowed a group of people to move on their assumptions for political purposes without any review. The process of academic review and challenging of data conclusions cannot be made because the data is fraudulent.

    We have Jones resignation, and the e-mails, and the code, and when the trial done, we will know whether fraud was perpetrated. I’m am sure at the very least the University will be compelled to investigate what happened, under of course direction of the legal authorities. Then after that, we will know, all we are going to about this affair.

    At first assessment though James, these EA boys are gonna hang.

    They are innocent! It was all a set up! How many people in prison claim their own guilt in affairs? Surely the EA “scientists” are getting lawyers, and as we have noticed are pretty mum.

  72. #72 by James Farmer - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:43

    Glenn Hoefer states:

    … no matter how you word it, I am out of this conversation now …

    Actually, Glenn, you have never been a part of the conversation. Rather, you have shouted your willy-nilly follishness and gobbledygook and groundless accusations and assertions from the sidelines and more or less frustrated the entire process of even having a conversation.

    That being said, I hope you are true to your word – i.e., being out of the conversation. Good bye, and good day!

  73. #73 by Glenn Hoefer - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:55

    Hhahah! James, I do believe it was I who first sent you the link about the emerging scandal. Truly there is very little substance in any of your own posts James.

    If you can’t hang with the politics of this issue, maybe you sit in Starbucks somewhere, tell the crew of progressives sitting in there the color of your credentials and wow them all with your own gobbledygook, and make yourself feel better, and align yourself with your belief, that yes, I Jimbo, am really smart.

    If you can’t cope Jim, with me, then what hope do you have with the general public? I guess this why lying and scientific fraud has some appeal for you, but I don’t know.

    How long do you think I will be out of this conversation if your vapid points are a part of it? You are smart enough to figure that out. I will just be poking you the entire way, as the elements of the fraud as exposed. We are at the tip of the proverbial melting ice burg.

  74. #74 by shane - December 3rd, 2009 at 11:56

    After considerable investigation, I am forced to conclude that the people who have found climategate to be the final nail in the coffin of this farce are most likely correct. Please see my post on the matter at http://oneutah.org/2009/12/03/climategate-worse-than-we-ever-thought/

  75. #75 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 14:40

    I’m impressed with just how wide the divide has become. It’s as though there hasn’t been even a scintilla of evidence generated to support growing carbon levels potential / or the crimes perpetrated during the exposure are simply all in a days work.

    So, while there Might very likely be something to prompt us to modify our behaviors, it’s just as likely to swing into a full-scale war on Christmas, or focus on how it was that such a pedestal was ever created for Tiger.

    The only sense of ‘lost cause’ I keep having is that we’re all so easily diverted. This is way beyond simply normal changes of interest.
    There’s boucoups push, pull, and hide the reality going on here, and it is shameful.

  76. #76 by cav - December 3rd, 2009 at 14:43

    Of course, that’s just me.

    I reserving real judgement till I hear what Rush Limbaugh has to say this weekend.

  77. #77 by Richard III - December 3rd, 2009 at 19:09

    In TIME magazine, page 10, December 7, 2009, Doris Wakeland of Silver City, N.M. states: “We made a huge mistake in 2000. Al Gore is the closest thing we have to a 21st Century Prophet”….

  78. #78 by Jim Barnstall aka Glenn Hoefer - December 4th, 2009 at 10:12

    Jim to James; NASA is next. Bet your pals are scramb ling over there, but maybe not if you are any guide as to the adroitness of fraud cover up.

    http://www.examiner.com/x-25061-Climate-Change-Examiner~y2009m11d24-Legal-fallout-of-Climategate–CEI-to-sue-NASA

    Better get the ducks in row.

  79. #79 by cav - December 4th, 2009 at 10:22

    The threatened suit is intended to reveal – internal discussions about NASA’s quiet correction of its false historical U.S. temperature records after two Canadian researchers discovered a key statistical error, specifically discussion about whether and why to correct certain records, how to do so…

    Some scarey shit, I tells ya!

  80. #80 by Glenn Hoefer aka Jim Barnstall - December 4th, 2009 at 18:16

    Let me laugh Cav.

    HA, hhshaaaahhahahahahhahahahhhahaha giggle, chortle, and hahhahahahhahahahahahhah!!!!

  81. #81 by Conservative Dickheads Go Home - December 5th, 2009 at 08:19

    “will be artificially adjusted to look closer to the real temperatures”

    ON NOES! DEY ARE ADJUSTING VALUES TO MAKE THEM MATCH THE REAL VALUES!!! OMG THATS *SCIENCE*!!! SCANDAL! SCAM! DIS PPL R TRYING TO DO SCIENCE!!!!!!!!!!! HOW WILL WE EVER GET A CHANCE TO DEFRAUD PPL WHEN DEY R DOING SCIENCE UPON US!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?! DIS SOCIALISM MUST BE STOPPED!!! YOU LIE!!!!!!!!!!!!!

    FUCK OFF REPUBLICAN RETARDS!!!!!!!!!

  82. #82 by Glenn Hoefer Posing as James - December 5th, 2009 at 10:19

    It is really hurting. No amount of whining will get we warmer screwheads off the hook. Not only are we idiots frauds, we have destroyed and lost heaps of data.

    Oh well, we just have start collecting more. See you about 20 years.

    Why dickhead do you believe it to be republicans? Nobody believes lies unless they are deceived. What about these people?

    I estimate that the strong cognitive consonance exhibited by climategate deniers could well take several months to fall to a coming cognitive dissonance. I recommend the whole lot of you start a prescription of prozac now, so you can cope with the reality.

    Source: http://bishophill.sq…uttings-33.html

    « More CRU revelations to come | Main | Phil Jones confirms that CRU has been hacked »
    Friday
    20Nov2009
    AuthorBishop Hill
    Climate cuttings 33
    DateNovember 20, 2009 CategoryClimate

    General reaction seems to be that the CRUgate emails are genuine, but with the caveat that there could be some less reliable stuff slipped in.

    In the circumstances, here are some summaries of the CRUgate files. I’ll update these as and when I can. The refs are the email number.

    * Phil Jones writes to University of Hull to try to stop sceptic Sonia Boehmer Christiansen using her Hull affiliation. Graham F Haughton of Hull University says its easier to push greenery there now SB-C has retired.(1256765544)
    * Michael Mann discusses how to destroy a journal that has published sceptic papers.(1047388489)
    * Tim Osborn discusses how data are truncated to stop an apparent cooling trend showing up in the results (0939154709)
    * Phil Jones describes the death of sceptic, John Daly, as “cheering news”.
    * Phil Jones encourages colleagues to delete information subject to FoI request.(1212063122)
    * Phil Jones says he has use Mann’s “Nature trick of adding in the real temps to each series”…to hide the decline”. Real Climate says “hiding” was an unfortunate turn of phrase.(0942777075)
    * Letter to The Times from climate scientists was drafted with the help of Greenpeace.(0872202064)
    * Mann thinks he will contact BBC’s Richard Black to find out why another BBC journalist was allowed to publish a vaguely sceptical article.(1255352257)
    * Kevin Trenberth says they can’t account for the lack of recent warming and that it is a travesty that they can’t.(1255352257)
    * Tom Wigley says that Lindzen and Choi’s paper is crap.(1257532857)
    * Tom Wigley says that von Storch is partly to blame for sceptic papers getting published at Climate Research. Says he encourages the publication of crap science. Says they should tell publisher that the journal is being used for misinformation. Says that whether this is true or not doesn’t matter. Says they need to get editorial board to resign. Says they need to get rid of von Storch too. (1051190249)
    * Ben Santer says (presumably jokingly!) he’s “tempted, very tempted, to beat the crap” out of sceptic Pat Michaels. (1255100876)
    * Mann tells Jones that it would be nice to ‘”contain” the putative Medieval Warm Period’. (1054736277)
    * Tom Wigley tells Jones that the land warming since 1980 has been twice the ocean warming and that this might be used by sceptics as evidence for urban heat islands.(1257546975)
    * Tom Wigley say that Keith Briffa has got himself into a mess over the Yamal chronology (although also says it’s insignificant. Wonders how Briffa explains McIntyre’s sensitivity test on Yamal and how he explains the use of a less-well replicated chronology over a better one. Wonders if he can. Says data withholding issue is hot potato, since many “good” scientists condemn it.(1254756944)
    * Briffa is funding Russian dendro Shiyatov, who asks him to send money to personal bank account so as to avoid tax, thereby retaining money for research.(0826209667)
    * Kevin Trenberth says climatologists are nowhere near knowing where the energy goes or what the effect of clouds is. Says nowhere balancing the energy budget. Geoengineering is not possible.(1255523796)
    * Mann discusses tactics for screening and delaying postings at Real Climate.(1139521913)
    * Tom Wigley discusses how to deal with the advent of FoI law in UK. Jones says use IPR argument to hold onto code. Says data is covered by agreements with outsiders and that CRU will be “hiding behind them”.(1106338806)
    * Overpeck has no recollection of saying that he wanted to “get rid of the Medieval Warm Period”. Thinks he may have been quoted out of context.(1206628118)
    * Mann launches RealClimate to the scientific community.(1102687002)
    * Santer complaining about FoI requests from McIntyre. Says he expects support of Lawrence Livermore Lab management. Jones says that once support staff at CRU realised the kind of people the scientists were dealing with they became very supportive. Says the VC [vice chancellor] knows what is going on (in one case).(1228330629)
    * Rob Wilson concerned about upsetting Mann in a manuscript. Says he needs to word things diplomatically.(1140554230)
    * Briffa says he is sick to death of Mann claiming his reconstruction is tropical because it has a few poorly temp sensitive tropical proxies. Says he should regress these against something else like the “increasing trend of self-opinionated verbiage” he produces. Ed Cook agrees with problems.(1024334440)
    * Overpeck tells Team to write emails as if they would be made public. Discussion of what to do with McIntyre finding an error in Kaufman paper. Kaufman’s admits error and wants to correct. Appears interested in Climate Audit findings.(1252164302)
    * Jones calls Pielke Snr a prat.(1233249393)
    * Santer says he will no longer publish in Royal Met Soc journals if they enforce intermediate data being made available. Jones has complained to head of Royal Met Soc about new editor of Weather [why?data?] and has threatened to resign from RMS.(1237496573)
    * Reaction to McIntyre’s 2005 paper in GRL. Mann has challenged GRL editor-in-chief over the publication. Mann is concerned about the connections of the paper’s editor James Saiers with U Virginia [does he mean Pat Michaels?]. Tom Wigley says that if Saiers is a sceptic they should go through official GRL channels to get him ousted. (1106322460) [Note to readers - Saiers was subsequently ousted]
    * Later on Mann refers to the leak at GRL being plugged.(1132094873)
    * Jones says he’s found a way around releasing AR4 review comments to David Holland.(1210367056)
    * Wigley says Keenan’s fraud accusation against Wang is correct. (1188557698)
    * Jones calls for Wahl and Ammann to try to change the received date on their alleged refutation of McIntyre [presumably so it can get into AR4](1189722851)
    * Mann tells Jones that he is on board and that they are working towards a common goal.(0926010576)
    * Mann sends calibration residuals for MBH99 to Osborn. Says they are pretty red, and that they shouldn’t be passed on to others, this being the kind of dirty laundry they don’t want in the hands of those who might distort it.(1059664704)
    * Prior to AR3 Briffa talks of pressure to produce a tidy picture of “apparent unprecedented warming in a thousand years or more in the proxy data”. [This appears to be the politics leading the science] Briffa says it was just as warm a thousand years ago.(0938018124)
    * Jones says that UK climate organisations are coordinating themselves to resist FoI. They got advice from the Information Commissioner [!](1219239172)
    * Mann tells Revkin that McIntyre is not to be trusted.(1254259645)
    * Revkin quotes von Storch as saying it is time to toss the Hockey Stick . This back in 2004.(1096382684)
    * Funkhouser says he’s pulled every trick up his sleeve to milk his Kyrgistan series. Doesn’t think it’s productive to juggle the chronology statistics any more than he has.(0843161829)
    * Wigley discusses fixing an issue with sea surface temperatures in the context of making the results look both warmer but still plausible. (1254108338)
    * Jones says he and Kevin will keep some papers out of the next IPCC report.(1089318616)

(will not be published)
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