Also, Republicans lead on the “generic ballot” by an unprecedented 10 points.

Source: Gallup.com

The last Gallup weekly generic ballot average before Labor Day underscores the fast-evolving conventional wisdom that the GOP is poised to make significant gains in this fall’s midterm congressional elections. Gallup’s generic ballot has historically proven an excellent predictor of the national vote for Congress, and the national vote in turn is an excellent predictor of House seats won and lost. Republicans’ presumed turnout advantage, combined with their current 10-point registered-voter lead, suggests the potential for a major “wave” election in which the Republicans gain a large number of seats from the Democrats and in the process take back control of the House.

Glenn Greenwald has a roundup of some of the reasons why. In general, we have a Democratic administration and Congress that steadfastly refuses to implement progressive policies. They are even plotting to roll back Social Security and Medicare.

UPDATE: It’s the economy, stupid. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports 9.6 percent unemployment and 14.9 million Americans looking for work. This means the real unemployment rate is closer to 16.5 percent. The Recovery Act (aka “stimulus”) may have prevented even worse job losses, but it was supposed to keep the rate under 8 percent. Unemployment has been 9 percent or higher for 16 months running, from May 2009 to August 2010.

UPDATE: Eli on FDL sums up the problem for Democrats:

Republicans can deliver their megadonors tax cuts, deregulation, corporate welfare, and protection from prosecution, all cocooned in a conservative narrative of supply-side economics, free enterprise, and independent frontier can-do spirit that their base just loves.

Democrats can’t do that, because there’s simply no way to spin pro-corporate, pro-wealth policies as congruent with progressive values. The best they can manage is to play the DLC/Third Way game of pretending that capitulation is really some kind of principled pragmatic centrism which is the only way to win elections or get anything done against the all-powerful GOP and its 55 49 40 41 Senate seats.

Some of the base reluctantly goes along with this because half a loaf is better than the enemy of the good or whatever, but none of us are particularly happy about always settling for a compromise of a compromise of a compromise. Think how much leverage Obama and the Democrats had after two huge electoral landslides, a huge Republican-branded financial crisis, and a huge congressional majority… and how little they did with it. They didn’t deliver on progressive priorities because that wasn’t what their big campaign donors wanted.

And now they’ve failed so miserably, sold out so blatantly, demoralized their base so completely, and ceded the populist ground so thoroughly to the Tea Party, that they’re on the brink of losing the House and maybe even the Senate. All of the Democrats’ kabuki to protect their corporate friends so they could rake in campaign cash and get re-elected will end up costing them their seats instead. Because it is possible to fuck up so badly and so obviously that all the money in the world can’t save you. Just ask the Republicans.

•